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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 194

post #2896 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scallywag View Post



Really?  I find markets like the known and dislike the unknown.

Exactly, and there is always a lot of unknown in this case. Obviously Obama no longer needs to concern himself with re-election, so will he be a harder case in this term? What's the plan for all things discussed during the campaign to be re-elected? Ect.
post #2897 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

AAPL's recent activity has single handedly eliminated all the gains I've ever made in investing since last year.
I fucking hate Tim Cook. This fucker is supposed to be an expert with supply chain management, yet every single product released recently has had supply chain issues.

That's unfair, you're a bandwagon buyer at this point expecting an endlessly rising stock. It's both a falling market and a company that has run out of silver bullets. They're living on past glory and the consumers, while they love the products, no longer feel the need to constantly upgrade.

They don't play well with others, they haven't had a brand new product since the IPad and their is a lot of redundancy in their products.
post #2898 of 5421
I don't think Tim Cook is to blame, it's just that after the iPhone 5 release, stockholders realized that there isn't any innovation since the first iPhone came out. Granted, the hardware spec is better, and the bigger screen definitely helped, but overall it was only evolutionary, not revolutionary. I remember before the first iPhone came out, Nokia mobile was the shit.

I regret not selling my AAPL stocks when it hit above $700. The only thing that will pull AAPL up to that point right now is for them to come out with a brand new product that consumers will feel that they "need" it, not merely "want" it. Just like we all need a smartphones nowaday. My AAPL stock is down in the high 10%, I feel like I should just sell them to take a lost and write it off on my tax income.
post #2899 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

That's unfair, you're a bandwagon buyer at this point expecting an endlessly rising stock. It's both a falling market and a company that has run out of silver bullets. They're living on past glory and the consumers, while they love the products, no longer feel the need to constantly upgrade.
They don't play well with others, they haven't had a brand new product since the IPad and their is a lot of redundancy in their products.

I'm not lamenting the lack of massive growth in its share price. I'm not disappointed that it's not at $750 or what have you by now. I'm lamenting the continuous release of dismal news regarding Apple's supply chain problems. That's it. Tim Cook is supposed to be a supply chain/operations master, so these issues are particularly peeving. The lack of product innovation does bother me, but I can't wholly blame and be pissed at Cook; he never was and still isn't an innovative, charismatic leader.

You add in a slowing global economy, the fiscal cliff fears, and the increase in capital gains tax and of course AAPL was bound to fall. But that fucker, Cook, has only managed to exacerbate the AAPL sell off by fucking up exactly what he should be a guru of. That annoys the piss out of me. Dude looks like a bitch too. Watch him on keynotes. No charisma whatsoever.

Yes, AAPL is most definitely oversold, but part of me wonders what AAPL's share price would be if:
a) The iPhone 5 resolved its initial supply problems within a couple weeks. If they aren't able to meet full demand
b) The new iMac wasn't rumored to have significant production delays due to manufacturing issues
post #2900 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

AAPL's recent activity has single handedly eliminated all the gains I've ever made in investing since last year.
I fucking hate Tim Cook. This fucker is supposed to be an expert with supply chain management, yet every single product released recently has had supply chain issues.

The sell off has not been related to fundamentals. If anything you should be grateful you have an opportunity to buy more at a lower price, assuming you're a value person of course.

post #2901 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scallywag View Post

Wow, I was expecting some stability and upward movement after the election, no matter who won as at least we would have resolution on that important question.  I guess I was wrong.  I bought into those sell offs just prior to the election and am wishing I stayed more in cash now.  :(
 


Don't really understand the bull case, other than the bears consistently drop the ball: the fundamentals suck, the technicals  suck, and volume has been dismal.

post #2902 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

That's unfair, you're a bandwagon buyer at this point expecting an endlessly rising stock. It's both a falling market and a company that has run out of silver bullets. They're living on past glory and the consumers, while they love the products, no longer feel the need to constantly upgrade.
They don't play well with others, they haven't had a brand new product since the IPad and their is a lot of redundancy in their products.

+1 on this.

Want to pick up more stock but spend any excess money I have on shoes or clothes or going out shog[1].gif
post #2903 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

I'm not lamenting the lack of massive growth in its share price. I'm not disappointed that it's not at $750 or what have you by now. I'm lamenting the continuous release of dismal news regarding Apple's supply chain problems. That's it. Tim Cook is supposed to be a supply chain/operations master, so these issues are particularly peeving. The lack of product innovation does bother me, but I can't wholly blame and be pissed at Cook; he never was and still isn't an innovative, charismatic leader.
You add in a slowing global economy, the fiscal cliff fears, and the increase in capital gains tax and of course AAPL was bound to fall. But that fucker, Cook, has only managed to exacerbate the AAPL sell off by fucking up exactly what he should be a guru of. That annoys the piss out of me. Dude looks like a bitch too. Watch him on keynotes. No charisma whatsoever.
Yes, AAPL is most definitely oversold, but part of me wonders what AAPL's share price would be if:
a) The iPhone 5 resolved its initial supply problems within a couple weeks. If they aren't able to meet full demand
b) The new iMac wasn't rumored to have significant production delays due to manufacturing issues

Chalk it up as a lesson learned, if you had this opinion going into the stock then you went into it for the wrong reasons. A company that has made as many wins in a row as AAPL is going to sell at a premium and has a lot of baked in expectations for the future.
post #2904 of 5421
Lesson learned is to look at the MACD. Clean break on September 24-25th. Stoch collapsed same time and RSI couldn't clear 70. How anyone can price in Iphone 5 reception, even after the fact, is beyond me.
post #2905 of 5421
Efficiency hypothesis my ass. Can't even explain how a stock can drop 10% yesterday and everything was going doomsday, and then have a 5% pop today.
post #2906 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by guyver00 View Post

Efficiency hypothesis my ass. Can't even explain how a stock can drop 10% yesterday and everything was going doomsday, and then have a 5% pop today.

1347 is the short term SPY 61.8% fibonacci retracement

edit: There are those predicting doomsday and those who wait for tech or trend line breaks. Knock on wood it is holding today.
post #2907 of 5421
I can't take you technical guys seriously.
post #2908 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

I can't take you technical guys seriously.

To paraphrase: Let go Luke...and stop trusting your feelings. Forget forward pe and press conferences.
post #2909 of 5421
On all the AAPL talk, I believe the fundamentals are clearly intact, new product cycle is smooth and on track, but what is driving the price decline in the most widely held stock? the same thing that drove the massive gains. Flocking. Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds and individuals are locking in gains going into year end and tax selling like crazy while the rate is still known. If you sold before the election on tax selling and reestablished the cost basis, you would be a big winner. Now you need to hope that everyone is reestablishing their cost basis. Pure trading cycle with this, not fundamentals. My $.02, but no one asked.
post #2910 of 5421
Quote:
Originally Posted by vezatron View Post

Lesson learned is to look at the MACD. Clean break on September 24-25th. Stoch collapsed same time and RSI couldn't clear 70. How anyone can price in Iphone 5 reception, even after the fact, is beyond me.


How can you expect to see the future by looking in the rear-view mirror?

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