Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 168

So China experiences its slowest GDP growth ever since the recession and the market responds by rallying?

It sucked less than expected the theme I think we'll be seeing going into next week with earnings. I try not to think of the rationale behind moves, just go with the flow and make $$

Lol at wall street and their silly expectations..

It's hard to wrap your head around, but 'not so bad' is better than 'coulda been better' as far as rallies are concerned since the short term is always traded on expectations of event outcomes or earnings.

I think it is also: We (WS fund mangers) expected Chinese to lie in a 8% range but they only lied in 7% range which shows that Chinese are getting serious about their economy.

 

they are still pretty busy playing politics and economy is definitely in the back burner.  once the political dusts settle, its full throttle mode.

 

6% is a more reasonable range, btw. 

 

chopping rates twice in a week?  pffft, no one cares, it only helps soe.  private enterprises are still getting credit line/loans at 12%+ rates, very tight liquidity and loan sharking is now a good business.

 

Who wants to start up a Chinese Mezz fund?

 

In all seriousness though, how much of China's boom was fueled by real estate speculation? I don't see a quick return to higher growth figures unless the government loosens the new restrictions. Without this internal driver, their economy is more heavily dependent on the global economy as a whole.

Well, you have to know the source of real estate speculation before complaining about the property boom/bust.  Unlike US, where the boom was funded by cheap and loose credit compounded by loan sharking, China real estate boom was caused by the dramatic increase in wealth but a total lack of capital outlets - small stock markets, limited debt markets, little financial products, no derivatives, little commodities market, and private capital raising activities are mostly illegal. Real estate was the only place to go for investments.

 

And China import/export is easy to understand; they run trade deficit against Germany and AU/other commodities markets, and surpluses against EU/US/etc.  So EU slows down, China will slow down.  Hard landing was a wet dream for doomsayers; it didn't hard land in 1997 when every other Asian country nose dived, it will not hard land now.

 

Real estate market in China is showing signs of rebound, but its the manufacturing driven private enterprises that's eating dirt.  Domestic consumption/products are still doing well.

Hmmm... I'm starting to think that AAPL could actually pop after earnings..

When do they report?

Tuesday, July 24th!

google freaking killed it today too, jesus.

You make a good point.

 

I wasn't complaining. Rather just seeking educated opinions. Regardless of the cause, real estate development fueled many Chinese domestic industries (construction, materials etc.) and the increase in tax revenues helped support large infrastructure projects. My point being that I do not think we can count on China to pull the global economy out of its current malaise. They won't land hard, but they won't spring back quickly either.

What are you guys expecting for AAPL?

Still loving GLUU, but looking like there's no way it's going to continue rising until earnings (Aug 7). Will liquidate it (temporarily) this week to pile into AMRN in anticipation of FDA approval. Make a quick buck hopefully, or, if NCE status is granted, a lot of quick bucks.

Bought in at $580 couple of months ago. sold at $612 a couple of weeks ago.

Hoping for it to drop again after earnings to buy again. hoping for a drop to $560.