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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 166

post #2476 of 4875
aapl stock just hit $615 a minute ago.
post #2477 of 4875

Well, it's high is like what 630something? 

 

So, will it be higher or lower than that before earnings?  I'm betting higher, but then will most likely drop shortly after.  

post #2478 of 4875
Quote:
Originally Posted by djh View Post

I've held AAPL since I ran a full DCF on it about a year ago.... I was always getting pissed I was missing rallies up and didn't think it could go any higher. But I used very conservative assumptions (growing at about a third of their average growth rate since they released the iPod in 2001) and still got a valuation of $750.
Personally, I have no interest in their products. But I have to admit that they've got a fantastic business model - they've got a simple lineup of easy-to-use and well-designed products, and since most people are pretty computer-illiterate they're more than willing to buy a well-marketed premium product.

 

Sure, take two points and draw a straight line is always the best way to forecast future growth.

 

Besides, whats CoE/ERP/RFR that you are using?

post #2479 of 4875
Don't remember off the top of my head, but I did all that unlevering/relevering beta based off some pretty standard comps (hp, dell, msft, csco etc) and wacc was around 10%.

I do remember how I projected growth though - the trend in their growth rates was pretty apparent, since every time they released a new product their revenues would grow by 60-70% the first year and taper off the 10-20% by year 4-5. So I assumed they wouldn't release anything new for the next 5 years and used similar growth rates given that the iPad was just released.

This got me an insane valuation, so I started adjusting them down.
post #2480 of 4875
Seems like that approach would be too coarse, IMO.
post #2481 of 4875
I bought Barclays on the cheap today. Hopefully it was not a big mistake
post #2482 of 4875
Quote:
Originally Posted by djh View Post

Don't remember off the top of my head, but I did all that unlevering/relevering beta based off some pretty standard comps (hp, dell, msft, csco etc) and wacc was around 10%.
I do remember how I projected growth though - the trend in their growth rates was pretty apparent, since every time they released a new product their revenues would grow by 60-70% the first year and taper off the 10-20% by year 4-5. So I assumed they wouldn't release anything new for the next 5 years and used similar growth rates given that the iPad was just released.
This got me an insane valuation, so I started adjusting them down.

 

Sounds off by a whole lot, in terms of revenue projections (lack of TAM consideration), beta (why not just run the numbers? comp doesnt work and this is not sotp), and erp/rfr is most likely off as well.

 

aapl went from 1.9% of SPY in 09 to 4.7% of SPY most recently, and that is going to hurt them when the market crashes or when apple craters on its own.

 

besides, sound like your model hasnt been updated for a while.  ;p

post #2483 of 4875
Yep, I'm sure there's a lot of things I overlooked. Maybe I'll do some more research when I get some time.
post #2484 of 4875
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Half of their revenue comes from Europe.  And search ad is still over 95% of their revenue.  Do your own math.

smile.gif I was thinking the same thing. Talking to other people, they looked at me like I was insane.
post #2485 of 4875
OPTT up crazy, what gives?
post #2486 of 4875
Out of the market 100% now. Foresee big slide within the next 3 months.
post #2487 of 4875
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post

Out of the market 100% now. Foresee big slide within the next 3 months.

This. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a repeat of August being a shitshow again.
post #2488 of 4875
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post

Out of the market 100% now. Foresee big slide within the next 3 months.

 

why not stay in 10yr ust and tips?  and if u are really that bearish, go for some vix futures or otm vix options?  or short eur/usd or aud/jpy?  or long china/short brazil and earn the spread?

 

or go full retail with 9999x levered short s&p etf? devil.gif

post #2489 of 4875
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

why not stay in 10yr ust and tips?  and if u are really that bearish, go for some vix futures or otm vix options?  or short eur/usd or aud/jpy?  or long china/short brazil and earn the spread?

or go full retail with 9999x levered short s&p etf? devil.gif

I am not trusting this market ever but especially now. It looks like denial right now leading to capitulation, imho. I will wait and if EU slides further against the dollar I will pounce on European RE properties. Market becomes too bi-polar for my taste. If I am wrong and US economy stabilizes over the next 6 months I'll be invested into HealthCare and INsurance.
post #2490 of 4875
I think we could see a rally soon to be honest.
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