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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 163

post #2431 of 5876
Pretty interesting stuff, thanks
post #2432 of 5876
Ugh, about to take a beating tomorrow (we're short) because markets are totally overreacting to the news of a single EU bank regulator. I mean, that's all well and good but how exactly does that stop a Greek exit and subsequent bank run in the no-longer EU country? And how does it stop yields from going higher in Italy and Spain?

But whatever, tomorrow is looking like a 1-2% day on the S&P and I'm going to get fucked.
post #2433 of 5876
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concordia View Post

This is an interesting one. A huge cash crunch right now, which will doubtless benefit some private lenders. Apparently most of the bank-sourced project finance in this area comes from a handful of European banks who have other things to worry about now. So there's some money to be made by other financiers.
On the other hand, I just read some interesting articles interviewing Mason Hawkins and a few of the other big investors in CHK. There's no way that natural gas won't be higher in a couple of years, at least relative to coal and oil. And with their back of the envelope calculations, that could mean a 5x return on CHK for the patient.
OID?
post #2434 of 5876
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

The big banks can likely endure the storm, my worry are the small to mid size financials that bet the house on events in europe. They don't nessecary effect the whole, but they bring down the investors confidence in financials.

 

I'm not worried about another big bank collapse. They have plenty of capital stockpiled. A further erosion of confidence in financials just prolongs this economic stagnation.

 

You are right to worry about smaller firms. I still remember what happened to Jefferies. Even though they were pretty well hedged, they got crushed because of counterparty risk.

post #2435 of 5876
Quote:
Originally Posted by dopey View Post

OID?
Afraid so.
post #2436 of 5876
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concordia View Post

Afraid so.
That was an unusual issue. I have never seen one devoted to only one idea.
post #2437 of 5876
Very true. I think in times gone by there may have been expansions of one theme (tech bubble, or whatever), but I've never seen a single stock so dominate an issue.

If you google around, there are some interesting observations on the publication-- it seems that the editor/publisher is even weirder than one would expect. The same reports suggest that he's had some personal reason not to have put out an issue for a while. So is he swinging extra hard as he comes off the bench?
post #2438 of 5876
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concordia View Post

Very true. I think in times gone by there may have been expansions of one theme (tech bubble, or whatever), but I've never seen a single stock so dominate an issue.
If you google around, there are some interesting observations on the publication-- it seems that the editor/publisher is even weirder than one would expect. The same reports suggest that he's had some personal reason not to have put out an issue for a while. So is he swinging extra hard as he comes off the bench?
My wife spoke with him once. She said he was nice but odd.
post #2439 of 5876
I wonder whether this Euro Crisis will ever sort itself out before we start worrying about our own problems back home?
post #2440 of 5876
ARR has been BLOWING UP lately.. icon_gu_b_slayer[1].gif

Might have to sell as I don't see why it's gone up so much.

BTW, I fucking hate it when Seeking Alpha (yes, I read articles on there when they're linked from google finance) authors write a stupid post after a stock they said in a past article will go up, goes up. They always go, 'look here at my last article (link) where I say that ____ stock will under/overperform... yadda yadda yadda.'

STFU cause you just got lucky, son.
post #2441 of 5876
....
Decided my post did not contribute to thread.
Edited by Aeneas - 7/3/12 at 7:30pm
post #2442 of 5876
APPL coming back strong
post #2443 of 5876
Speaking of apple, their earnings release is july 24th and I think they're going to disappoint a lot. I'm going to sell my position before the release.
post #2444 of 5876
Quote:
Originally Posted by BartDalmazi View Post

agreed with the apple position.

I don't know what to do with AAPL. I want to sell now and take my 25% because I too am thinking earnings will disappoint. The IPhone 5 is going to be HUGE though and it is the reason I bought AAPL in the first place.

post #2445 of 5876
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedLeg View Post

I don't know what to do with AAPL. I want to sell now and take my 25% because I too am thinking earnings will disappoint. The IPhone 5 is going to be HUGE though and it is the reason I bought AAPL in the first place.

My hypothesis and action plan:

- Tomorrow, the gubment will release positive jobs numbers, indirectly boosting Apple's recent run-up a little more
- Sell all my Apple shares before EOD tomorrow and take profitz
- Expect Apple shares to pull-back a little before earnings release
- Expect Apple shares to fall dramatically after earnings release
- Buy after tumble, and hold until end of the year
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