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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 713

post #10681 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirReveller View Post


Bullion not contracts. Rebalance into/out of 2%. The 100 year avg annualized return on gold is a meager 0.7%. ie < a tenth the equity risk premium. It doesn't shoot up nearly as dramatically during market panics as many expect if the USD is strong. Still a useful insurance allocation at 2% -but if you want an insurance instrument for a prolonged recessionary bear buy a managed futures ("CTA") hedge fund or, now conveniently, ETF. These did +26% during 08-09. I'd hold this more towards 5% of your total ptflio rather than gold at 5.

Solid advice. 

 

I should also have been clearer. Gold is usually 5% of my trading portfolio, not total investment portfolio, so around ~.5%-2% of total. I only passively managed my 401ks and Roth 401k. 

 

I'm down to about 1/3rd my usual holding since I sold off most of it when it peaked above $1,300 since I was up about 20% at that point.

 

SR, what managed future ETFs would you recommend?  

 

 

 

Also I think some good points have been made by everyone around the WFC scandal, let's get back to investing shall we?

 

At this point I'm nearly out of contrarian plays. I've selectively reentered some REITs as the yield curve has steepened. I'm positioned in shipping and debating if I want to increase my position. It's the only industry with fairly durable cash flows that I see as currently cheap. Thoughts?

 

I also pick up selective market exposure through XIV and ZIV whenever VIX spikes. 

post #10682 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

My experience with them has been the exact opposite. Running a large company means that you have to do so with the business in mind and not really concern yourself with the little guy's qualms with every decision that you make....however on a personal level the ones I have met have been pretty normal and have even gone out of their way to be considerate and inclusive.

You mean like firing 5,000 little guys doing as their told to do? The decision makers at Wells fired and have ruined many of those people's careers without a hint compassion towards their lives. Meanwhile, the craftsmen behind the scheme remain a mystery.

CEOs, politicians, and many TV personalities lull people into believing the shit their shoveling. There is a big difference between the capacity to make macro level decisions and the kinds of personality traits these types of people have in common.
post #10683 of 11185
Reaction formation in action is really an interesting thing to observe.
post #10684 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

You mean like firing 5,000 little guys doing as their told to do? The decision makers at Wells fired and have ruined many of those people's careers without a hint compassion towards their lives. Meanwhile, the craftsmen behind the scheme remain a mystery.

CEOs, politicians, and many TV personalities lull people into believing the shit their shoveling. There is a big difference between the capacity to make macro level decisions and the kinds of personality traits these types of people have in common.

Right....the Board really needed that 2 million so badly that they decided to compromise the company for it.

When your sales manager says 'pull out all the stops' they mean get off your ass and call your clients. They don't mean make accounts for your family members and fake accounts for the unwitting.

I'm certain they're not so short sighted as to think that a 'scheme' of any kind was necessary to the success or would "line the pockets" of the upper management. Look what it has cost in terms of customer retention, ect.

They were attempting to remove the crop of dishonest employees without destroying their sales culture....yes a 'sales' culture...in a company whose goal is to make profits. Along the way they probably also had to fire people who were not good salespeople, that happens.

The other 267,000 employees, who do seem to be able to do their jobs, have kept them.
post #10685 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

Right....the Board really needed that 2 million so badly that they decided to compromise the company for it.

When your sales manager says 'pull out all the stops' they mean get off your ass and call your clients. They don't mean make accounts for your family members and fake accounts for the unwitting.

I'm certain they're not so short sighted as to think that a 'scheme' of any kind was necessary to the success or would "line the pockets" of the upper management. Look what it has cost in terms of customer retention, ect.

They were attempting to remove the crop of dishonest employees without destroying their sales culture....yes a 'sales' culture...in a company whose goal is to make profits. Along the way they probably also had to fire people who were not good salespeople, that happens.

The other 267,000 employees, who do seem to be able to do their jobs, have kept them.

I see, so 5000 people all miraculously came up with the same idea to commit the same fraud?

An executive or group of executives directed the scheme. More executives likely knew, and did nothing. If Wells is such a stand up corporation, why haven't any executives been turned over to authorities?

And don't underestimate people's capacity to be short sighted, you only need to watch 10 mins of American Greed if you doubt me.
post #10686 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

And don't underestimate people's capacity to be short sighted, you only need to watch 10 mins of American Greed if you doubt me.

We don't doubt you.
post #10687 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post


Right....the Board really needed that 2 million so badly that they decided to compromise the company for it.

When your sales manager says 'pull out all the stops' they mean get off your ass and call your clients. They don't mean make accounts for your family members and fake accounts for the unwitting.

I'm certain they're not so short sighted as to think that a 'scheme' of any kind was necessary to the success or would "line the pockets" of the upper management. Look what it has cost in terms of customer retention, ect.

They were attempting to remove the crop of dishonest employees without destroying their sales culture....yes a 'sales' culture...in a company whose goal is to make profits. Along the way they probably also had to fire people who were not good salespeople, that happens.

The other 267,000 employees, who do seem to be able to do their jobs, have kept them.

Don't forget the ~$20B of lost market cap. Of which the CEO and senior management were major shareholders. Schemes also routinely spread among sales people. 

 

But seriously, I think it is time to move on. 

post #10688 of 11185
IBB has dropped about 9% this week.
post #10689 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

IBB has dropped about 9% this week.

Momentum is a real bitch. 

 

I'm going to watch as it keeps dropping, then start shoveling money in tranches. 

 

Aiming for a 1% share in VRX by the end of this :).

post #10690 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

Momentum is a real bitch. 

I'm going to watch as it keeps dropping, then start shoveling money in tranches. 

Aiming for a 1% share in VRX by the end of this smile.gif.

Did you see the Bloomberg article today on VRX and how it expects a reduction in guidance from the next ER?
post #10691 of 11185
Turns out John Stumpf exercised about $61M options about a month before the scandal broke and immediately sold the shares for a gain of $26M. Certainly very bad optics.
post #10692 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texasmade View Post

Turns out John Stumpf exercised about $61M options about a month before the scandal broke and immediately sold the shares for a gain of $26M. Certainly very bad optics.

CEO's being such benevolent leaders and all, I'm sure it was a coincidence.
post #10693 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post


Did you see the Bloomberg article today on VRX and how it expects a reduction in guidance from the next ER?

Yup. 

post #10694 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

Yup. 

Thoughts?
post #10695 of 11185
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post


Thoughts?

No comment :).

 

Except I thought it was amusing that Bloomberg made a graph that said  "Valeant has a long way to go" then showed Q1+Q2 revenues equal to 48% of midpoint guidance. I have no idea what that was suppose to show. 

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