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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 709

post #10621 of 11195
BMY, of which I'm holding after the last drop just took another big hit today... this sucketh. Oh well, will hang in there for a while.
post #10622 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

BMY, of which I'm holding after the last drop just took another big hit today... this sucketh. Oh well, will hang in there for a while.

Hey... at least its not TWTR
post #10623 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


When, not if, Hills gets elected biotech will plummet. Unless the market already has that priced in, which could be, as it seems that sector got hammered in the last year.



But Wall St will rally.

post #10624 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post



But Wall St will rally.

I completely agree. She has friends to keep happy there.
post #10625 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post



But Wall St will rally.
And also retreat.
post #10626 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


When, not if, Hills gets elected biotech will plummet. Unless the market already has that priced in, which could be, as it seems that sector got hammered in the last year.

I'm not so sure.

 

For all her talk, what will she do? The system is extremely complex. Push come to shove, I also think many democratic senators will not stand behind her. Pharma represents a decent chunk of the economy in many blue states.

 

A token rule on price increases is already priced into biotech stocks. 

post #10627 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

I'm not so sure.

For all her talk, what will she do? The system is extremely complex. Push come to shove, I also think many democratic senators will not stand behind her. Pharma represents a decent chunk of the economy in many blue states.

A token rule on price increases is already priced into biotech stocks. 

If they start making noise about Medicare acting along the lines of a PBM hit the eject button would be my advice. There has been lots of noise about this in the past and I think the time would be right for her to try this move.
post #10628 of 11195
post #10629 of 11195
Opened a position in BMY pre-market after the 10% drop yesterday. Nicely discounted entry point.
post #10630 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


If they start making noise about Medicare acting along the lines of a PBM hit the eject button would be my advice. There has been lots of noise about this in the past and I think the time would be right for her to try this move.

How would that work? Privately insured patients are told their drugs aren't covered because Medicare doesn't want to add their drug to formulary? 

 

I think the first step in fixing pharma (not health care) should be harmonizing the EMA and FDA, maybe holding joint meetings. This paves the way to later put pricing pressure on the pharma companies without destroying them. 

post #10631 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

How would that work? Privately insured patients are told their drugs aren't covered because Medicare doesn't want to add their drug to formulary? 

I think the first step in fixing pharma (not health care) should be harmonizing the EMA and FDA, maybe holding joint meetings. This paves the way to later put pricing pressure on the pharma companies without destroying them. 

No, more along the lines of Medicare getting into purchasing and driving down prices. It's quite true pricing in the US is higher relative to its OECD peers.
post #10632 of 11195
With the Samsung news, AAPL is going up
post #10633 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


No, more along the lines of Medicare getting into purchasing and driving down prices. It's quite true pricing in the US is higher relative to its OECD peers.

Medical pricing is a bit like other high risk development projects in defense or oil and gas. The successes subsidize the failures. 

Wherever the system is the most flexible is where it will be pushed the most. Since other nations negotiation prices heavily the US makes up for their poor margins.

 

If the US drives down prices then OECD peers will have to begin paying more. Right now the US is such that if a drug is approved in the US it will likely pay off its development costs. Take that away and the revenue and profits will need to come from somewhere else. 

 

That isn't to say there can't be a natural compression of the costs required for research, but everything is highly specified, so there is fairly little wiggle room. That's why I suggest harmonizing the EMA and FDA, because that would considerably cut down costs while increasing market size. 

post #10634 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

Medical pricing is a bit like other high risk development projects in defense or oil and gas. The successes subsidize the failures. 
Wherever the system is the most flexible is where it will be pushed the most. Since other nations negotiation prices heavily the US makes up for their poor margins.

If the US drives down prices then OECD peers will have to begin paying more. Right now the US is such that if a drug is approved in the US it will likely pay off its development costs. Take that away and the revenue and profits will need to come from somewhere else. 

That isn't to say there can't be a natural compression of the costs required for research, but everything is highly specified, so there is fairly little wiggle room. That's why I suggest harmonizing the EMA and FDA, because that would considerably cut down costs while increasing market size. 

I've been saying here for years that either the rest of the world will have to spend more of its GDP on drugs or innovation will slow. Robert Reich agrees with me. Jump to about 1:30.
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
post #10635 of 11195
I don't know what all is in the IBB (biotech index) but it just dropped 3% today and has come down from 300+. I sold off some at 301 and was going to sell the rest at 310, now it's back down to below 280 again. Damn. Added a few more shares now at 280 and will add more at 270, 260, etc. I mean on the bright side, with an index like this I get the volatility that lets me make money in between without the risk of any one company just dying.
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