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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 677

post #10141 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

I am more bemused and slightly saddened by references to things like continuing to chase a dog downwards in order to lower one's "break even point". I've explained at what I'm sure is annoyingly great length why I think this makes no sense, so I won't repeat myself unless someone is really a glutton for punishment.

 

No, I've appreciated it because it echos my own beliefs.  I don't understand MC's strategy at all, but whatever.  If I was holding Twitter, and I was up, I'd be locking in those gains not buying more.  If I was down, I'd probably run for the hills.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by UnFacconable View Post

MC - this is a public service announcement, but you should really look into twitter's business more. People who understand the digital advertising business have been telling me for years that twitter's product for advertisers drastically underperforms. One of my VC friends has been giving me a hard time for years over my opinion on their business but finally came around a few weeks ago and admitted I have been right all along.

I won't get into the user product side because while I don't disagree with GF that they have problems, I don't think it's the main reason they are going to continue to lose value. Product management tweaks are not going to fix their core problem which is that they provide a poor product for their customers (eg advertisers). I'm not saying they won't go up and down and that you can't break even, but I haven't seen any reason to believe there is hope for a pop, absent acquisition rumors.

If my words won't do it, let me show you a picture of decline:



http://www.recode.net/2016/7/26/12291266/twitter-ad-revenue-issues-q2-earnings

 

Agree completely.  These social media companies are two sided markets - consumers and advertisers.  They can subsidize one (by making it free as an example) to try to extract revenue from another.  Video games are a good example: Sony, Microsoft, etc provide support to game developers so it is easier to make video games on their platform.  That drives more games to the platform, which leads to more gamers picking that platform, and then licensing revenue.

 

Twitter has a lot of users, but the advertisers aren't getting their money's worth - they're not reaching their customers.  Facebook has been far more successful at that,  I think Twitter focused too much on attracting users because it is a metric to get funding.  They needed to be making their platform friendly for advertisers to reach the audience they want.

post #10142 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

 

Twitter has a lot of users, but the advertisers aren't getting their money's worth - they're not reaching their customers.  Facebook has been far more successful at that,  I think Twitter focused too much on attracting users because it is a metric to get funding.  They needed to be making their platform friendly for advertisers to reach the audience they want.

If Twitter was much cheaper, this would actually attract me to it as a small speculative investment (sub $1-2k). 

 

It's not an easy problem to tackle, but it's not impossible either. If tackled correctly it could also have great results. Building a big user base is far harder and more of a competitive advantage. Especially including multiple celebrities and the White House ect.

 

The thing is, I'm not paying ~50% of the expected value on speculation. Same reason I avoid TSLA. 

post #10143 of 11190
M, tell me you're still bullish on VRX and I'll triple my position. I won't even use a limit order. Straight up market order!!!!!!!!

icon_gu_b_slayer[1].gificon_gu_b_slayer[1].gificon_gu_b_slayer[1].gif
post #10144 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post
 

If Twitter was much cheaper, this would actually attract me to it as a small speculative investment (sub $1-2k). 

 

It's not an easy problem to tackle, but it's not impossible either. If tackled correctly it could also have great results. Building a big user base is far harder and more of a competitive advantage. Especially including multiple celebrities and the White House ect.

 

The thing is, I'm not paying ~50% of the expected value on speculation. Same reason I avoid TSLA. 

 

It certainly can be fixed, but so far, they seem no indication they are fixing it - rather they continue to focus on user counts.  FB's model is easier with side bar ads and whatnot because it is similar to how Google and other websites do it.  Although, I'm still surprised by FB: I have never clicked on a FB ad before

post #10145 of 11190
People I know in advertising say they get tremendous ROI with Facebook ads. I'm not surprised, given how targeted and relevant they can be.

I've certainly tapped on some fb ads because they actually were relevant to me at the time. My only problem is that they're increasing ad load and half my newsfeed is either an ad or sponsored content. Bodes well for short term revenue but I worry user engagement will drop over time if they push it too much.

But maybe it won't be as big of an issue if they can continue to serve quality, relevant ads.
post #10146 of 11190
@Master-Classter It seems like you're assuming TWTR will continue to trade in a range like TSLA, AAPL, and most of the market has for a while. I think that would be a dangerous assumption to make, especially in a field that moves on as quickly as technology does. I was in a similar mindset with GPRO, and ended up with about a third of my original position before finally cutting my losses. I'm in a similar position now with oil, but I think there's a far better chance of breaking even on that. I think the question you have to ask is if there's a better chance of you breaking even by staying in that position, or investing that money in something else and breaking even through those returns.

@GreenFrog I can't see user engagement on Facebook going anywhere but down.
post #10147 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post
 

 

It certainly can be fixed, but so far, they seem no indication they are fixing it - rather they continue to focus on user counts.  FB's model is easier with side bar ads and whatnot because it is similar to how Google and other websites do it.  Although, I'm still surprised by FB: I have never clicked on a FB ad before

I don't disagree. Like I said though if the valuation was lower I would be willing to take a harder look at it. 

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

M, tell me you're still bullish on VRX and I'll triple my position. I won't even use a limit order. Straight up market order!!!!!!!!

icon_gu_b_slayer[1].gificon_gu_b_slayer[1].gificon_gu_b_slayer[1].gif

Never do a market order on a volatile stock. I learned that one the hard way buying some oil stocks a while back. I continue to add to my VRX position.

 

For DD I'd recommend building a DCF and creating a sensitivity table to see what rate of earnings change the market is currently implying and determining if you think that is reasonable. 

post #10148 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

I don't disagree. Like I said though if the valuation was lower I would be willing to take a harder look at it. 
Never do a market order on a volatile stock. I learned that one the hard way buying some oil stocks a while back. I continue to add to my VRX position.

For DD I'd recommend building a DCF and creating a sensitivity table to see what rate of earnings change the market is currently implying and determining if you think that is reasonable. 

I was just kidding. I use limit orders for all my transactions.

I'm not adding to my VRX position for now.
post #10149 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

Oh come on...its not shutting down right wing activists. It is shutting down professional trolls who are engaged in a targeted, hateful campaign against specific people they don't like.

You can still have all the crazy opinions you want on twitter, but if you act like that Milo douche, you're going to get banned. As you should be, from any public platform. SF would ban someone for doing far less.

It is absolutely in twitter's best interests to swing the ban hammer at people who are making the place a hostile environment.

Ok so the BLM crowd is celebrating killed cops in Dallas... accounts still open

Right wing professional troller... banned for thoughts on a movie (that is actually total shit)

Scratching my head about "ban hammer" and "hostile environment" when you compare these two.

Their liberal bias has been chronicled well before Milo. A bunch of social justice warriors work there, and helps explain why the company is a piece of shit like Yahoo.
post #10150 of 11190
facepalm.gif
post #10151 of 11190
On the topic of social media and advertisers, does anyone have a position in YELP? I'm a fan of their product as are most of my friends, and have been impressed by their turnaround since Q1 '15. Also view them as a prime takeout target with a decently deep pool of potential buyers. If only I bought in Feb.
post #10152 of 11190
Wowza FB

Why did I sell @ 107 back in January 😭
post #10153 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisjr View Post

On the topic of social media and advertisers, does anyone have a position in YELP? I'm a fan of their product as are most of my friends, and have been impressed by their turnaround since Q1 '15. Also view them as a prime takeout target with a decently deep pool of potential buyers. If only I bought in Feb.

I did, and lost money. Most of these social media stocks are all hat no cattle.
post #10154 of 11190
Thanks Zuck - next 20 rounds are on me smile.gif.
post #10155 of 11190
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post

Thanks Zuck - next 20 rounds are on me smile.gif.

Time to up your car budget icon_gu_b_slayer[1].gif
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