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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 676

post #10126 of 11195
I like using Twitter.
post #10127 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

At this point I'm just buying down so i can get closer to getting out with a breakeven or a bit of money. Average cost is about 17 at this point so if it comes up from this drop I'm planning to sell right where it was before the report and I'm out of this one. Probably my longest holding, hell. Started buying it originally in the 40's then sold and rebought in the high 20's.

MU - tough call.... I sold my QCOMM at 55 and thought it would come back down to around 50 but instead it went up to 60+. Mu has been slowly chugging along upwards and I'm ready to sell around 15-16 but I'm wondering if it'll hit 18. I think I'll just sell and move on instead of holding out for higher. Time will tell if this was a good or bad move.

Sold more AAPL today at 104. Was planning to hold this block of shares until 110-115 but sold today and if it hits sub 100 again I'll rebuy.

Color me stupid, but this sounds nuts. It's like waiting for stock prices pulled out of thin air.
post #10128 of 11195
If you're talking about TWTR, well, I'm holding it already, I'm in the stock anyway. I won't sell and lose money. I'll sell and either break even or ideally make something. If I'm committed to the stock since I'm holding it and it drops, I'll buy more and lower my average cost, lowering my breakeven point. So I would have prefered it go up and I'd sell and am out, but it went down so I added more and whenever it comes up I'll sell it and move on. Churn and burn.

If you're talking about my numbers above in general, well I'm basing them off various peaks and valleys on the charts historically and also my gut feeling about each company as I've watched them go up and down over the past year or two and I seem to have gotten better at sensing when they're going to turn back, either upwards or downwards. I'm doing this for fun it's just a gamble. I don't care about anything fundamental, just the historical as indicators and the news and expectations I read.


My strategy is based on this - I feel like it's harder to know when something is going to go up based off an earnings report, but if it goes down, you know it's gone down, and there's a good chance it's an overeaction, and adding in the historical charts, my feeling is a stock is more likely to recover half or fully off a big dip than trying to buy in on upwards movement and hope it keeps going. I buy low and sell mid. Buy fear, sell greed.
post #10129 of 11195
puzzled.gif
post #10130 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

If you're talking about TWTR, well, I'm holding it already, I'm in the stock anyway. I won't sell and lose money. I'll sell and either break even or ideally make something.
No doubt it will be glad to accommodate.
post #10131 of 11195
@MSchapiro and @Piobaire, please come back and save this thread.
post #10132 of 11195
I mean isn't the stock market basically 10% fundamentals and 90% hopes and dreams? :-)
post #10133 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

I mean isn't the stock market basically 10% fundamentals and 90% hopes and dreams? :-)

I'd hardly call purchasing a stock that's falling simply to lower your cost basis hopes and dreams.
post #10134 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post

@MSchapiro and @Piobaire, please come back and save this thread.

Schapiro would make a great b-school teacher and I'm glad he posts here.
post #10135 of 11195

I only buy stock's that send individual certificates so I can hang them on my wall.  My study is wall papered in Enron stock certificates so I can go there and am reminded of my failures.

 

MC has stated his gambling philosophy before but we should always remind him about how bad the strategy would have been with VRX.

post #10136 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post

puzzled.gif
Sigh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbarwick View Post

I only buy stock's that send individual certificates so I can hang them on my wall.  My study is wall papered in Enron stock certificates so I can go there and am reminded of my failures.

MC has stated his gambling philosophy before but we should always remind him about how bad the strategy would have been with VRX.

MC is a nice guy and I wish him the best, so hopefully this comment is taken as a discussion of investing styles spurred by his comments and not a personal attack, but . . .

I have less issue with his "gambling philosophy" as such - everyone choose their own risk/reward plays.

I am more bemused and slightly saddened by references to things like continuing to chase a dog downwards in order to lower one's "break even point". I've explained at what I'm sure is annoyingly great length why I think this makes no sense, so I won't repeat myself unless someone is really a glutton for punishment.
post #10137 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

Sigh.
MC is a nice guy and I wish him the best, so hopefully this comment is taken as a discussion of investing styles spurred by his comments and not a personal attack, but . . .

I have less issue with his "gambling philosophy" as such - everyone choose their own risk/reward plays.

I am more bemused and slightly saddened by references to things like continuing to chase a dog downwards in order to lower one's "break even point". I've explained at what I'm sure is annoyingly great length why I think this makes no sense, so I won't repeat myself unless someone is really a glutton for punishment.

I'm in full agreement here.

I'm also a little worried about the hopes and dreams part. I'm going to take the cop out on this and bet on intuition versus a lottery ticket approach. Intuition has to factor in both the current state and NPV based on some future state.
post #10138 of 11195
MC - this is a public service announcement, but you should really look into twitter's business more. People who understand the digital advertising business have been telling me for years that twitter's product for advertisers drastically underperforms. One of my VC friends has been giving me a hard time for years over my opinion on their business but finally came around a few weeks ago and admitted I have been right all along.

I won't get into the user product side because while I don't disagree with GF that they have problems, I don't think it's the main reason they are going to continue to lose value. Product management tweaks are not going to fix their core problem which is that they provide a poor product for their customers (eg advertisers). I'm not saying they won't go up and down and that you can't break even, but I haven't seen any reason to believe there is hope for a pop, absent acquisition rumors.

If my words won't do it, let me show you a picture of decline:



http://www.recode.net/2016/7/26/12291266/twitter-ad-revenue-issues-q2-earnings
post #10139 of 11195
Agree with the repeated sentiment that this is not to attack or slam anyone. We're sharing our philosophies, thoughts, and in the case of some folk like Schapiro and a few others, we have folks generous enough to share their expertise with us. MC is a good guy and I don't want him feeling attacked in the least. I'm certainly not a high flying investing guru and no doubt have a limited upside as we all know my investment philosophy is rather mundane and probably both overly simple and risk adverse.

cheers.gif
post #10140 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post

@MSchapiro and @Piobaire, please come back and save this thread.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


Schapiro would make a great b-school teacher and I'm glad he posts here.

I appreciate the compliments guys. 

 

Maybe one day it will be my retirement plan.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by jbarwick View Post

 

MC has stated his gambling philosophy before but we should always remind him about how bad the strategy would have been with VRX.

You're potentially looking at an incomplete situation with VRX. Look at GGP around 2008. If one just maintained a constant stream of buying then their total position could very well have been profitable over time. Most investors aren't able to maintain as a stock drops, however.

 

I personally identify speculative opportunities and tranche in over time. Depending on the industry I'll set aside money for anywhere from 3 to 10 tranches. If the stock goes up before I can increase my position size I'm still happy. If not I will complete my position size. 

 

TDW for example I have purchased slowly over time. If the market manages to recover I can expect a 5 to 1 return or better (versus a 10 to 1 for those who could time the market perfectly). If it fails I am still happy with the odds I took. The biggest issue is when an investor goes all in at once forgetting how momentum plays a role in the stock market. 

 

If only 1 out of 3 of my highly speculative investments returns 5 to 1 I can still likely beat the S&P. Due to my 401k anyway the majority of my portfolio is broad market funds.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

I mean isn't the stock market basically 10% fundamentals and 90% hopes and dreams? :-)

It's easy to dismiss MC's strategy, but given the length of time he has been trading it isn't surprising.

 

Since 2010 BTFD (buy the dip) has worked extremely well. MC is just playing his own version of this on individual stocks he knows. In fact the more people who get used to BTFD the more it becomes true. Just look at the SPY graph. Constant little dips with a shot back up. Following this consistently would have let you out perform the market. 

 

Two interesting pieces here.

 

1. This is actually a big worry for some of the older traders. They have younger traders on the desk, even with up to 5 years experience, who have never traded in a down market before. With the way that HFT and algos have changed the game none of the older traders have any experience in trading in a down market in this market either. Throw in that some of the machine learning algos may have never traded in a down market either who knows what will happen. 

 

2. This is why most decent but not exceptional traders have a short half life, often 3-5 years. Like MC they learn what works and develop a certain intuition. Then the market paradigm changes and suddenly they find they can't trade anymore. 

 

 

Of course long term this is like picking up pennies on a railroad track. But if you look from 2002 until 2011, even if you were picking up these pennies and it went terribly wrong, you'd actually have made enough to eventually recover and more if you didn't have any extremely risky positions. 

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