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NBA 2016-2017 Season Thread - Page 357

post #5341 of 27247
Heat leading Knicks by 7 in the 4th... ughhhhh ffffuuuu.gif
post #5342 of 27247
9 now angry.gif
post #5343 of 27247
jeez... censored.gif f'g Heat!
post #5344 of 27247
stylish win by Miami ... those guys are just too good, fun to watch ...
post #5345 of 27247
Quote:
Originally Posted by indesertum View Post

his points and rebound averages (20/10) are at an elite level. if you only counted points and rebounds blake griffin is 3rd in the league (http://rater.givemetherock.com/index.php check only points, rebounds and filter)
the reason he's not an elite pf/center is because while his free throw attempts are 6th in the league his free throw percentage is 370th in the league. he's 92nd in blocks. there are 20 odd guys in the league with about double double averages in points and rebounds and all of them have better stats than blake griffin because of that. if he simply had a league average (70 to 75%) and an average of even a block per game then definitely yes he would be an elite center, maybe even top 10 player
subjectively he's a great shooter, great post game, brings great energy to the team and audience (esp when he dunks) but defensively he really doesn't do a lot. he doesn't close out as much as he should, he doesn't put his hand in his opponent's face as much as he should, and he's not perceptive enough about spacing and potential moves and it shows in his stats.
dude is definitely entertaining to watch (lob city is always fun) and he has great raw talent but as he is now i wouldn't put him in the top 20 power fowards much less top 10 players.
one thing this article (http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/basketball/fba/story?page=hardcorenba120126) i read recently makes clear is that while his rebounds and points are high, players with high rebounds and points are not scarce, while players with blocks are. dwight offsets his low (albeit heigher than blake) ftp with his league leading rebounds, blocks, and fgp making him at the very least a top 40 player
this is a pretty big exaggeration, don't you think? there's 30 starting PF in the NBA. not putting Blake in the top 20 means you'd gladly take guys like Andray Blatche over him if you were an NBA GM...

I am not sure if you are arguing from a fantasy perspective, given that you are quoting a fantasy BB article above. Blake is somewhat overrated in fantasy for the reasons you mention, but IRL his total package (current production, youth, potential, ceiling) make him not only top 5 but pretty much untradeable unless it's for Durant or Lebron. points and rebounds are only 2 categories in fantasy but they are key in basketball...kinda like the old football cliche of defense and the running game wins championships, there's a similar cliche in basket ball about rebounding. and the only 20/10+ guys in the league right now are Blake and Kevin Love (Dwight is just about there with 19.x ppg). Blake is doing all this with a raw offensive game, which I'm sure he's working like mad to polish.

He could definitely improve his man and post defense, but he is a tremendous team defensive asset (rebounding = defense because you are limiting your opponents shot attempts per game). not a great shot blocker but many of the all time great PF's weren't either. plus pairing him with Deandre Jordan covers up that deficiency anyway.
post #5346 of 27247
definitely not andray blatche in top 20 and definitely not gladly. like you said he's young and he'll be a great asset for the team. but if we're arguing right now, then there are about 20 some guys that come before blake griffin maybe slightly less

not sure if i should repeat my reasoning, but for clarity's sake. points and rebounds (and generally fgp) are done well by most power forwards and centers. blocks and ftp are not. this mitigates griffin's high points, boards, and fgp as there are many other pf/c that produce nearly as much but have far better blocks and ftp.

i think the idea was for griffin and deandre to be twin towers (like olajuwan and ralph simpson), but i think at least this year they haven't been doing so well. i think in a few years time tho if chris paul stays and they get somebody better for billups, and butler begins to perform up to expectations clippers will be a pretty deadly team.

again it's not that griffin is a bad player or a bad asset to the team by any means, but if we're ranking players according to stats then griffin is not an elite player
post #5347 of 27247
miamia v. chicago should be a good game. i can actually watch it on tv (abc) !
post #5348 of 27247
Quote:
Originally Posted by indesertum View Post

...
not sure if i should repeat my reasoning, but for clarity's sake. points and rebounds (and generally fgp) are done well by most power forwards and centers. blocks and ftp are not. this mitigates griffin's high points, boards, and fgp as there are many other pf/c that produce nearly as much but have far better blocks and ftp.
...but if we're ranking players according to stats then griffin is not an elite player

There is a stat that accounts for blocks, assists, etc., in addition to points and rebounds, it's called "Efficiency":

http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Efficiency.jsp?league=00&conf=OVERALL&position=0&splitType=9splitScope=GAME&qualified=N&yearsExp=-1&splitDD=All%20Teams

You'll find Blake Griffin among the top 10 in the league and number 6 among C/PFs in efficiency. To cherry-pick your stats in an attempt to argue that Blake Griffin isn't an elite player (in just his second year) is just silly.

Oh, by the way, there is only one C/PF among the top 50 players in efficiency with more APG than Griffin--Marc Gasol averages 3.2 and Griffin averages 3.1 APG. So, even though his defense could use work, not only is he one of two C/PFs who averages more than 20 points and 10 rebounds a game, he is also among the tops at his position in assists (among PFs, only Darren Collison averages more APG).
post #5349 of 27247
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinman View Post

There is a stat that accounts for blocks, assists, etc., in addition to points and rebounds, it's called "Efficiency":
http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Efficiency.jsp?league=00&conf=OVERALL&position=0&splitType=9splitScope=GAME&qualified=N&yearsExp=-1&splitDD=All%20Teams
You'll find Blake Griffin among the top 10 in the league and number 6 among C/PFs in efficiency. To cherry-pick your stats in an attempt to argue that Blake Griffin isn't an elite player (in just his second year) is just silly.
Oh, by the way, there is only one C/PF among the top 50 players in efficiency with more APG than Griffin--Marc Gasol averages 3.2 and Griffin averages 3.1 APG. So, even though his defense could use work, not only is he one of two C/PFs who averages more than 20 points and 10 rebounds a game, he is also among the tops at his position in assists (among PFs, only Darren Collison averages more APG).

^ultimately blake's stats will aided with the increase in Win Shares stats that will surely come at the end of 2011-2012 season. once his win shares go up (which maybe ironically an artificial increase due to having such an improved team and Chris Paul).

for me its interesting to see how Kevin Love will always be in the shadow of Blake Griffin - especially in the "who would you rather have?!" scenarios. hell, even I would take griffin on first notice. even with major stat heads griffin still bests Love (because Love had such shitty seasons and ultimately low win shares).

One writer in Basketball Reference already tackled the intricacies about that debate: http://chasing23.com/kevin-love-vs-blake-griffin-better-power-forward/

Kevin Love vs Blake Griffin: Who’s the Better Power Forward?
post #5350 of 27247
i like the article, but the guy seems biased towards griffin. he compared the players on offense, defense, intangibles, and long term outlook. he gave love the win on offense and intangibles and griffin a slight win in intangibles and a win in long term outlook. and then he says that griffin is the better prospect not in just the long term, but also the near term when in his analysis it seems love wins in the near term


anyways, i think we can get nitty gritty here. i think the problem with my analysis was that it was done in a fantasy aspect especially in a head 2 head comparison where each statistical category is equally important and ratings are related to the ranking of the player in each category. like i mentioned while griffin is one of the league leaders in points and rebounds and elite in fgp because he was so low on all other categories i considered him to be far lower in position than it would seem.

one of the criticisms levied against player efficiency rating (PER) is that it rewards inefficient shooting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating#Problems_With_PER
Quote:
"Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots."

Dave Berri, Author of The Wages of Wins

the other criticism against PER is that it doesn't really take defense into account and i would argue that's where griffin really underperforms.

you would think that an elite power forward would be rated by his blocks not assists. a power forward with high rankings in assists would indicate to me that he has a hard time making his shots and instead kicks it out to a shooter in the wings or corner. the best power forwards of all time have incredible block numbers and a far better score in steals. subjectively if you look at griffin play most of the time he doesnt even bother doing the little things that help a team defensively (closing out or even attempting to block a shot).

The difference in our analysis then is that if you take efficiency of shooting (fgp + ftp, not PER) and defense less into account then griffin rises in rankings.




i think the difference in opinion really just lies in which way you look at it and how much value you put into certain stat categories
post #5351 of 27247
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawrenceMD View Post

^ultimately blake's stats will aided with the increase in Win Shares stats that will surely come at the end of 2011-2012 season. once his win shares go up (which maybe ironically an artificial increase due to having such an improved team and Chris Paul).
for me its interesting to see how Kevin Love will always be in the shadow of Blake Griffin - especially in the "who would you rather have?!" scenarios. hell, even I would take griffin on first notice. even with major stat heads griffin still bests Love (because Love had such shitty seasons and ultimately low win shares).
One writer in Basketball Reference already tackled the intricacies about that debate: http://chasing23.com/kevin-love-vs-blake-griffin-better-power-forward/
Kevin Love vs Blake Griffin: Who’s the Better Power Forward?

I've never been a big fan of Kevin Love, but I DO think he's a better player than Blake Griffin right now. I also think Love is very close to his ceiling, whereas Griffin has much more upside because of his athleticism. So if I were a GM building a team, I'd take Griffin over Love, although Love is slightly better right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by indesertum View Post

i like the article, but the guy seems biased towards griffin. he compared the players on offense, defense, intangibles, and long term outlook. he gave love the win on offense and intangibles and griffin a slight win in intangibles and a win in long term outlook. and then he says that griffin is the better prospect not in just the long term, but also the near term when in his analysis it seems love wins in the near term
anyways, i think we can get nitty gritty here. i think the problem with my analysis was that it was done in a fantasy aspect especially in a head 2 head comparison where each statistical category is equally important and ratings are related to the ranking of the player in each category. like i mentioned while griffin is one of the league leaders in points and rebounds and elite in fgp because he was so low on all other categories i considered him to be far lower in position than it would seem.
one of the criticisms levied against player efficiency rating (PER) is that it rewards inefficient shooting
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating#Problems_With_PER

crackup[1].gif You're going to argue that PER favors Griffin because it rewards inefficient shooting, when Griffin's FG percentage is 0.521, 12th in the league?? Try again.
Quote:
the other criticism against PER is that it doesn't really take defense into account and i would argue that's where griffin really underperforms.
you would think that an elite power forward would be rated by his blocks not assists. a power forward with high rankings in assists would indicate to me that he has a hard time making his shots and instead kicks it out to a shooter in the wings or corner.

Again, your analysis of assists is just wrong. Would you make this argument about Chris Paul, that he kicks the ball out because he can't shoot? What about Larry Bird (since we're talking about a power forward)? Would you use Larry Bird's assist numbers against him to claim that he couldn't shoot?
Quote:
the best power forwards of all time have incredible block numbers and a far better score in steals. subjectively if you look at griffin play most of the time he doesnt even bother doing the little things that help a team defensively (closing out or even attempting to block a shot).
The difference in our analysis then is that if you take efficiency of shooting (fgp + ftp, not PER) and defense less into account then griffin rises in rankings.
i think the difference in opinion really just lies in which way you look at it and how much value you put into certain stat categories

Although I'm not sold that steals are an important gauge of a player's defensive prowess (witness Kobe's free-lancing to build his steals numbers), I can agree with your basic premise about Griffin's defense. Griffin has a lot to learn about defense, but most young players do. The NBA has so few elite defenders that players like Shane Battier would be an important piece of any team. Although I think Griffin still has tremendous upside if he learns to defend, and he can learn to become a top defender, his attitude in the NBA compared to college seems very different. In college, he worked tremendously hard to improve his game, but I didn't see much improvement between his first and second years playing (actually playing) in the NBA. He was also a very mature player compared to his peers in college and walked away from several rough, flagrant fouls. In the NBA, he seems to have turned into a whiner. His attitude and work ethic will determine whether or not he realizes his tremendous potential by learning to become a great defender. He is already an elite player, but could become one of the best power forwards of all time if (1) he wants to do the work required to play better defense and (2) he develops a "go-to" move on offense, even if it's a reliable mid-range jumper. He had a decent mid-range jumper in college, but it's not working in the NBA against taller players and/or people who force him a few feet further from the basket than he's comfortable.
post #5352 of 27247
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post #5353 of 27247
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambo View Post

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So how about the Lakers?
post #5354 of 27247
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinman View Post


crackup[1].gif You're going to argue that PER favors Griffin because it rewards inefficient shooting, when Griffin's FG percentage is 0.521, 12th in the league?? Try again.

notice how i wrote fgp + ftp. he's so much of an inefficient shooter at the free throw line that it hurts his overall efficiency even with his high fgp

Quote:
Again, your analysis of assists is just wrong. Would you make this argument about Chris Paul, that he kicks the ball out because he can't shoot? What about Larry Bird (since we're talking about a power forward)? Would you use Larry Bird's assist numbers against him to claim that he couldn't shoot?

also note that i never counted assists against a power forward, but simply that when considering elite power forwards assists should be taken into account less. larry bird is an elite power forward even without looking at his assists. the fact that he has great assists in addition makes him one of the all time best PF. chris paul is a pg as you so aptly point out and does not apply

Quote:
Although I'm not sold that steals are an important gauge of a player's defensive prowess (witness Kobe's free-lancing to build his steals numbers), I can agree with your basic premise about Griffin's defense. Griffin has a lot to learn about defense, but most young players do. The NBA has so few elite defenders that players like Shane Battier would be an important piece of any team. Although I think Griffin still has tremendous upside if he learns to defend, and he can learn to become a top defender, his attitude in the NBA compared to college seems very different. In college, he worked tremendously hard to improve his game, but I didn't see much improvement between his first and second years playing (actually playing) in the NBA. He was also a very mature player compared to his peers in college and walked away from several rough, flagrant fouls. In the NBA, he seems to have turned into a whiner. His attitude and work ethic will determine whether or not he realizes his tremendous potential by learning to become a great defender. He is already an elite player, but could become one of the best power forwards of all time if (1) he wants to do the work required to play better defense and (2) he develops a "go-to" move on offense, even if it's a reliable mid-range jumper. He had a decent mid-range jumper in college, but it's not working in the NBA against taller players and/or people who force him a few feet further from the basket than he's comfortable.

i agree with everything you said, but imo to be an elite power forward you need to have great defensive skills as well. personally i think his mid range jumper is quickly developing into one of his best weapons. his fadeway jump shot is really really good. and he's so quick and agile on everything. it's just a shame he doesn't hustle more on defense
post #5355 of 27247
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambo View Post

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