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NBA 2016-2017 Season Thread - Page 1335

post #20011 of 27226
The unfortunate reality of the NBA is you need to hit on draft picks to be successful because you can't max your way to a great team but you can't get great players (or even very good players) for less than the max. There are a shortage of very good players in the league - look at how hard it is to be an all star. I know the Warriors better than any other team so I'll start with them - they are in the position they're in because (i) prior ownership drafted Steph (which many thought was a risk given his size and perceived athletic weakness hahaha - suckers), (ii) current ownership drafted Klay (inconsistent production in college and had recently been arrested for MJ possession), (iii) traded Monta and Ekpe Udoh (and I guess Kwame) for Bogut and Stephen Jackson (much criticized trade but had to happen), (iv) got Harrison Barnes with the 7 pick and Draymond Green in the second round, (v) because of how awesome Curry is, convinced Iguodala to sign with them, (vi) prior ownership paid David Lee which seemed like a bad contract at the outset but he's actually been pretty good his entire time with the Warriors.

They haven't hit on 100% of their big moves and not everything has worked according to plan but they've certainly been fortunate. In an alternate universe David Lee breaks down, Bogut never recovers from his foot injury a few years ago, Steph Curry's ankles continue to be problematic and Iguodala ages even faster than he appears to be. Oh and from what I hear they almost traded Klay a year ago for non-basketball reasons that have apparently gone away. The Warriors could have made the exact same moves and ended up in the cellar.

And what's amazing is that all of this came together in a way that the Warriors are likely to only have a one year peak this season. It doesn't look like they can keep Dray and Barnes, and it's an outside possibility that they can't afford to pay either. There's talk of Dray commanding $15M+ a year on the open market. Success is very precarious in the NBA and you can't operate in the vacuum. It's very difficult to draft more than one good player in a year (and that's assuming you hit on every first round pick) so you must be successful in attracting free agents and in trades. The fact that so many smart people are failing should prove how difficult it is to achieve sustained success. People know they are taking risks when they sign guys to max contracts, but letting good players walk is also a risk.
post #20012 of 27226
i don't think there is any one way to build a great team. there are probably as many different approaches as there are championship teams. The Lakers -- the team I've known the best the longest -- were built almost entirely on trades. the big advantage to building through the draft is that you usually get to hold on to the good surprises longer before they become max players. the downside is that sometimes even what seem like sure bets turn out to be dogs. in fact, personally I'm highly skeptical of building through the draft. works great when you get winners, but there are at least as many examples of the opposite. Building through trades is obviously problematic because you are paying a higher price for the players, but at least you are buying more-or-less known quantities. and if you're going to build through trades, it does seem like team balance becomes even more important. You can only afford 2 or 3 great players at a time, so you have to be able to pick up the rick foxes, derek fishers, matt barnes who can do complement the kobes, paus, shaqs, etc.
post #20013 of 27226
building through the draft is super tough and has a high failure rate, but so does every other method. basically you have to do everything you can just to get a window where you can compete for a championship for 2 years, and you have no guarantees past that point. trading works nicely when things come together but lol, literally no team historically has had an advantage in trading/free agency like the lakers. most players don't mind going to the lakers in a trade, but that's not an option for, say, charlotte trying to get someone w/ 1 year left on their contract.

it remains to be seen whether or not the lakers' draw will continue being a factor after dwight left. most laker fans are probably glad he did, but the team isn't, and he was the 1st major FA to have done so. the city will always be a draw, but the ownership is unproven to say the least.
post #20014 of 27226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brothersport View Post

building through the draft is super tough and has a high failure rate, but so does every other method. basically you have to do everything you can just to get a window where you can compete for a championship for 2 years, and you have no guarantees past that point.
and, of course, there are so many other things completely outside your control that have to go right to win even a conference championship ... 82 game season, think of how many games are won by 5 points or fewer and how many times a chance offensive rebound, a missed free throw or some fluke play ended up deciding a game.
Quote:
it remains to be seen whether or not the lakers' draw will continue being a factor after dwight left. most laker fans are probably glad he did, but the team isn't, and he was the 1st major FA to have done so. the city will always be a draw, but the ownership is unproven to say the least.
well, from my experience with the team, i think most of the players were not disappointed to see dwight go personally, though they are disappointed at what has happened since and what that says about the franchise. i think there was MUCH greater disappointment in having cp3 stolen, than having dwight walk.
post #20015 of 27226
or freak accident injuries
post #20016 of 27226
Quote:
Originally Posted by foodguy View Post

and, of course, there are so many other things completely outside your control that have to go right to win even a conference championship ... 82 game season, think of how many games are won by 5 points or fewer and how many times a chance offensive rebound, a missed free throw or some fluke play ended up deciding a game.
Definitely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by foodguy View Post

well, from my experience with the team, i think most of the players were not disappointed to see dwight go personally, though they are disappointed at what has happened since and what that says about the franchise. i think there was MUCH greater disappointment in having cp3 stolen, than having dwight walk.
Re: Dwight, do you have personal experience w/ the team? Just wondering. I don't follow the Lakers super closely, so I'm not sure if it was just Kobe that hated Dwight or there were others as well. As a fan, I would tend towards not caring what the players think. Kobe's important but he was only gonna play through 2016 at the latest, and nobody else was a good player.

That is, I don't think the fans or management should care much what the other players thought of Dwight if he was gonna be a good player. Dwight certainly would have had a much longer future w/ the franchise (if he had stayed) than any other player. It's crazy; out of that 2012-13 team, the only players still left on the team are Kobe (78 games started), Sacre (3), and Jordan Hill (1).

The Chris Paul thing is a whole other issue, and kind of unrelated from a standpoint of building a team. He's obviously much better than Dwight is now, due to health.
post #20017 of 27226
Regarding success in the draft, yes, it's a lottery. But it has a lot to do with the situation a player is drafted into.

My favorite recent example is SA's draft pick, Kyle Anderson. There is probably no better situation for him considering SA's ability to develop players and get them to play well within a quality system, one which he looks like he fits well into. If he went to Minnesota, he'd likely be done in a year or so. I'm sure there are hundreds of cases where guys could have had solid careers were they drafted into a different system, and we've certainly missed a superstar or two. Hell, Kwame Brown could have been a rock star.

If a team were focused on development of a guy into an established team of veteran players mixed with different levels of development, you'd have a better chance of success nurturing draft picks. That's what SA has. No room for locker room clowns on that team.
post #20018 of 27226
I'm sure its not a coincidence that the Lakers started having problems retaining or attracting key guys when Jerry Buss ceded control and eventually passed
post #20019 of 27226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brothersport View Post

Re: Dwight, do you have personal experience w/ the team? Just wondering. I don't follow the Lakers super closely, so I'm not sure if it was just Kobe that hated Dwight or there were others as well. As a fan, I would tend towards not caring what the players think. Kobe's important but he was only gonna play through 2016 at the latest, and nobody else was a good player.

That is, I don't think the fans or management should care much what the other players thought of Dwight if he was gonna be a good player. Dwight certainly would have had a much longer future w/ the franchise (if he had stayed) than any other player. It's crazy; out of that 2012-13 team, the only players still left on the team are Kobe (78 games started), Sacre (3), and Jordan Hill (1).

The Chris Paul thing is a whole other issue, and kind of unrelated from a standpoint of building a team. He's obviously much better than Dwight is now, due to health.
well, kobe never calls anymore .. biggrin.gif
I do have a couple connections to the team. at least according to them, the other players thought dwight was a nice guy but was not a good fit. and basketball-wise, he never made an effort to be a good fit, and in fact actively resisted it. the impression i got was that dwight thought he was one kind of player, when his skill set seemed to dictate being another kind of player. plus, he didn't have the world's greatest work ethic.
it'll be interesting to see how he fares in houston. and i don't think health is the only thing that separates DH and cp3. (and interestingly, Jordan has PER 2 points higher than Howard this year). nod[1].gif
post #20020 of 27226
Quote:
Originally Posted by foodguy View Post

well, kobe never calls anymore .. biggrin.gif
I do have a couple connections to the team. at least according to them, the other players thought dwight was a nice guy but was not a good fit. and basketball-wise, he never made an effort to be a good fit, and in fact actively resisted it. the impression i got was that dwight thought he was one kind of player, when his skill set seemed to dictate being another kind of player. plus, he didn't have the world's greatest work ethic.
it'll be interesting to see how he fares in houston. and i don't think health is the only thing that separates DH and cp3. (and interestingly, Jordan has PER 2 points higher than Howard this year). nod[1].gif
yea dwight certainly strikes me as a clown who thinks he's super funny when he's average at best, and he does seem to be the antithesis of kobe. he also definitely desperately wants to be known as a dominant post-up player when he's okay down there, but a hall-of-fame level pick-and-roll player. honestly that's probably mostly from shaq's diabolical constant dwight-bashing, he's totally in dwight's head about that. with that said, kobe has never made an effort to be a good fit in any offensive scheme since shaq left, sooooo...... like kobe can't integrate dwight and nash into your offense efficiently w/o ceding the ball and having them work together some, and i don't remember much of that happening during that "dream team" year.

i highly doubt dwight's work ethic is great, esp compared to kobe, but i'd have a hard time believing that his health wasn't the major major factor in his experience in LA not working out for anyone involved. if he's healthy, or he just sits out more, he doesn't play underwhelmingly, and the catastrophe of the season gets blamed much less on him.

i think howard's health is at the point where he's never going to be 100% again. he looked phenomenal for a stretch early on this season, then he left w/ knee or ankle issues for an extended period of time, and he hasn't been the same since. yeah, chris paul is much better than dwight now, but if dwight was healthy, you'd think he would have a much higher impact on games going into the future.

huh, maybe not. i just looked it up and they're the same age. for some reason i thought paul was substantially older. never mind then.
post #20021 of 27226
Quote:
Originally Posted by HRoi View Post

I'm sure its not a coincidence that the Lakers started having problems retaining or attracting key guys when Jerry Buss ceded control and eventually passed

I always thought it was Kobe.
post #20022 of 27226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brothersport View Post

kobe has never made an effort to be a good fit in any offensive scheme since shaq left, sooooo...... like kobe can't integrate dwight and nash into your offense efficiently w/o ceding the ball and having them work together some

I wonder, who gave into the triangle better? Michael or Kobe? I'd venture Michael but I don't know the intricacies of the offense enough.
post #20023 of 27226
What's going to happen with the spurs moving forward? They only have 5 people under contract (Parker, Splitter, Diaw, Mills and Anderson). IDFNL - you're the GM, what do you do to rebuild that team? And don't say "pay under market" because obviously every GM would be a success if they could get players at below market rates.
post #20024 of 27226
I am mostly speculating but I would imagine the defensive rules of Jordan's day were more easily attacked by the triangle farrrrrrrr more than those today. Haralabob, basically the smartest vocal NBA fan alive, said basically he thinks it's impossible to win a title primarily running the triangle offense nowadays, and that you need a pick and roll-based system. (context: he was basically denigrating the Knicks)

He said that if you go back and watch all those Kobe/Shaq Lakers titles, they were running primarily high pick and rolls in the second half.

There's so much defensive freedom and doubling and rotation allowed on defense today, you really need that fluid player-ball movement.
post #20025 of 27226
Hmm...maybe Jordan shouldn't have been a max player then
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