NBA 2016-2017 Season Thread

[RFX45]

I'm just saying though, I doubt Melo or Nowitzki has a better percentage, or at least outlandishly big lead in percentage, if they took as many shots as Kobe has.

I agree that numbers doesn't tell the whole story, you can put a stat on how well Battier or Artest defends or how well Malone screens and runs the pick and roll with Stockton.

 

[LawrenceMD]

Originally Posted by Hombre Secreto

That's actually a really bad analogy. Ever notice that in the beginning of the baseball season players start off with like 400 batting averages? The high averages gradually decline as the at bats start increasing.

No way Dirk and Melo have taken as many last second shots as Kobe.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...in-crunch-time

Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).

you're right since kobe took so many clutch shots (under sometimes double/triple teams) his average skewed low.

hence my statement of just taking the raw numbers (how many shots he made) under clutch situations being the ultimate way of saying he's clutch. it works better that way when you think about who's clutch (jordan/miller/bird/kobe/j. west ect).

Bryant's 26 makes also lead the League, followed by Carter with 20, Ray Allen with 17 and Allen Iverson's 14. Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce have each made 13.

if you make a ton of game winning/tying shots - you're clutch.

 

[LawrenceMD]

Originally Posted by RFX45

I'm just saying though, I doubt Melo or Nowitzki has a better percentage, or at least outlandishly big lead in percentage, if they took as many shots as Kobe has.

I agree that numbers doesn't tell the whole story, you can put a stat on how well Battier or Artest defends or how well Malone screens and runs the pick and roll with Stockton.

there's also the rabid fan base thing... like since there were so many celtics fans in the 80's with archived vhs tapes of games we have visual proof of larry bird being clutch.

but what if clyde drexler was just as clutch? or mookie blayloc? we just don't really know or care because there aren't as many (or any) compiled youtube gems showing things like reggie miller daggers/kobe highlights reels to see.

 

[RFX45]

That's true, I don't think they even started recording rebounds or assists (not sure which one) until about 20 yrs into the league iirc.

 

[embowafa]

Sometimes statistics are just silly when it comes to measuring intangibles. The pass from Roethlisberger to Holmes in the Super Bowl in the corner of the endzone goes into the stat book as a 15 yd TD completion (or whatever it was). But we all know it was ******* CLUTCH because we're not robots.

I would compare clutch-ness to the Superior Court's definition of Appreciation...."You know it when you see it"

Would anyone not named Shawn Marion pick Shawn Marion (.357) over Kobe Bryant (.292) in a game winning situation? I don't even think Shawn's MOM would pick him over Kobe.

Another thing, what that article or the statistics can't measure are the times when Kobe has gone into "**** you, we're not losing this game" mode in the last couple minutes and turns a close game into a laugher (see: WCF vs. Suns last year). Everyone with half a brain would call those shots clutch as hell, but the stats won't because there was no buzzer beater to make.

 

[LawrenceMD]

Originally Posted by embowafa

Sometimes statistics are just silly when it comes to measuring intangibles. The pass from Roethlisberger to Holmes in the Super Bowl in the corner of the endzone goes into the stat book as a 15 yd TD completion (or whatever it was). But we all know it was ******* CLUTCH because we're not robots.

I would compare clutch-ness to the Superior Court's definition of Appreciation...."You know it when you see it"

Would anyone not named Shawn Marion pick Shawn Marion (.357) over Kobe Bryant (.292) in a game winning situation? I don't even think Shawn's MOM would pick him over Kobe.

Another thing, what that article or the statistics can't measure are the times when Kobe has gone into "**** you, we're not losing this game" mode in the last couple minutes and turns a close game into a laugher (see: WCF vs. Suns last year). Everyone with half a brain would call those shots clutch as hell, but the stats won't because there was no buzzer beater to make.

thats where phil jackson comes in. Its weird because phil's thrown kobe under the bus so many times even suggesting that kobe makes games close on purpose to be able to have a game winning shot opportunity. (and the other quotes from that article).

thats probably the weirdest coach player dynamic in the whole league.

 

[Brothersport]

o im sorry are fgm and fga "stats" too complicated for u guys??

 

[Brothersport]

Ugh, I make a terrible troll cuz i can't leave it alone.

Look the point isnt that I don't think Kobe is the best end-game shooter. I think he's the best. I was totally amazed when he hit like 7 game winners durin the regular season. ******* insane.

Two things, though:

1. Kobe is most likely not as straight up MONEY as you Laker fans remember. Why? Selection bias and fandom. I'm just pointing that out. You don't have to believe it (and you won't). That's fine. That doesn't mean he's not better than Shawn Marion or whatever garbage player you point out. But he doesn't bat 1.000.

2. It's not about how that ONE GUY does with that last shot. No matter how much you boil it down, it's still a team game. Kobe may in fact do better w/ the last shot than anyone else in the league, but his offense struggles (comparatively) for it. The stats just bear that out. Dude has ONE ASSIST in crunch time. ???? Remember how LeBron got trashed over passing to Donyell marshall and others? Kobe doesn't need to worry about that. Instead, he has Ron Artest saving his butt after an airball --> putback FTW. If I had to choose one player to get the shot off over the entire D, I would certainly choose Kobe, but why is that the only option??


I thought that was an incredibly well-researched and well-written article. In reality, the truth almost certainly lies between the 79% of GMs' opinions and Henry Abbott's. But I thought it would be an interesting article to share. Like it or not, I don't have any motivation in hating the Lakers other than the overwhelming LA fanbase on this thread. So if it came out that Kobe was in fact the clutchest motherfucker on the planet, w/ stats and evidence backing up our opinions, I'd believe it and post it here. But it's fine if you don't accept that.

 

[embowafa]

That's marsupialed. How can you hold anyone to the standard of 100%? O Rly? Kobe missed a shot once or twice? I didn't know that!

The greatest baseball hitting performance of all time had a 60% failure rate. "I'm just sayin....Teddy Ballgame's not as money as you think...don't go relying on him to get you a hit"

Again, using stats to measure an intangible like "clutchness" is just dumb. Using stats to state the obvious and prove that someone doesn't make 100% of their attempts is probably dumber. Connecting the dots that because they don't make 100%, they're by default not clutch or less clutch than you thought is the dumbest.

 

[coldnyt1]

Originally Posted by mmadha

Lakers all the way.

i BELIEVE... why not see celtics and LAKERS at the FINALS....

 

[RFX45]

Originally Posted by Brothersport

If I had to choose one player to get the shot off over the entire D, I would certainly choose Kobe, but why is that the only option??

Man, even as a Kobe and Laker fan I don't believe the guy is perfect by any stretch. You said it yourself, you'd pick Kobe. The same way the Bulls picked Jordan and the same way the Cavs picks Lebron. You try to give it to your best player or the second best choice. Now I say second best choice because if you're losing by 2 you won't give it to Howard or Shaq (even when he was in hi peak) because the other team will foul them. The Lakers actually has Fisher as their secondary option in case Kobe is denied a chance so yeah there are options but your give it your best player and like you said yourself, you'd pick Kobe as well.

Originally Posted by Brothersport

Two things, though:

1. Kobe is most likely not as straight up MONEY as you Laker fans remember. Why? Selection bias and fandom. I'm just pointing that out. You don't have to believe it (and you won't). That's fine. That doesn't mean he's not better than Shawn Marion or whatever garbage player you point out. But he doesn't bat 1.000.

The thing is, no one bats 1.000, at least no one that plays consistent basketball. A rookie who may get a lucky put back to win the game and doesn't play again can have 1.000 but how many stars has made all their clutch shots? Now, stats don't lie but there are plenty of things to consider. Like a follow up shot by Artest and Pau in the playoffs last year, do they count? Their put backs and it wasn't in the game plan. They happen to be in the right place at the right time, I'm sure if Kobe was in the same spot, he probably would have made the shot too. But the thing is, Kobe gets the first crack at it and takes the shot so it is for him to lose. That situation probably makes a small percentage but it is something to consider.


The whole point is as simple as this really. If you have a choice of anyone in the league right now for a final shot to win it all, will you pick Kobe or not? Will you really follow the stats and say, "sorry Kobe, Pau has 10% more chance of making this shot so he'll be taking it"?

 

[13k]

Originally Posted by RFX45

The whole point is as simple as this really. If you have a choice of anyone in the league right now for a final shot to win it all, will you pick Kobe or not? Will you really follow the stats and say, "sorry Kobe, Pau has 10% more chance of making this shot so he'll be taking it"?

Pretty much sums it up. Abbott just wanted to say "clutch king isn't so clutch, look at the #'s" But yet, all these GM's and coaches still would throw him the ball in crunchtime cuz the guy delivers.

 

[Brothersport]

Ugh what I said is that if I had to choose one person to make an absurd double-teamed shot, I would pick Kobe. BUT I WOULD NOT CHOOSE HIM IF I HAD TO MAKE A FINAL PLAY.

As the stats bear out, a clutch-time offense he leads does not do that well in general.

Why is that? Because you know, with a certainty, that he is going to shoot the ball. That's why these other players have higher fg%s. So you choose Dirk, since you know if he's covered, he'll pass to Terry. Or Lebron, since he has a history of passing to open shooters. That's the point. Kobe pits himself against the entire defense. Is he the best in the world at pulling it off when that happens? Probably. Is that the best option? No.

As for the batting 1.000 thing, well if you can't tell hyperbole, then internet shame on you.

 

[13k]

Dude, you have to take into account situationals. Some of these guys on that list probably don't even have more than 1 defender (let alone their best defensive man) guarding them while they hoist a lucky shot.

If you want to take the stat into further discussion, ask for the stat breakdown year by year. How many situations per year and take into the account of fgm/fga per year. This was taken over the career. Lets face the fact that he's bricked a few crunchtime shots early in his career. Add into the mix that as time has passed, more and more (better and better) defenders were thrown at Kobe as his infamy has grown.

 

[RFX45]

Well if you can't see a hyperbole as a response back then shame on you. It was obvious homey, you just sours because it made your defense look bad.

So you won't take Kobe because he'd shoot the shot for sure? Ok, now show me stats of the rate of success of Lebron, Dirk, etc... of their clutch assist.

You also have to take everything else into account. Is there someone open in all these Kobe shots? What if they played him one on one? Is he being double teamed all the time? If so, are the open players who can shoot? Are they losing by 3 and everyone behind the line is covered? You wouldn't pass it to someone inside the paint. Did Phil Jackson draw a play for Iso? Did he draw up a play that opens up others and did it work on the defending team? Does Kobe have a good look in the basket? I want to see a stat or data where he had the chance to pass it to an open player for the win but refused to do so. Kobe has been famous for these clutch shots and teams have to decide whether to guard him one on one or double him and even when they double him, most of his teammates just stand there because their used to it or that is what the coach wanted. You can't pass the ball just for the sake of passing the ball. Again, get further into the stats and show me data where he literally shot the ball and missed while another player is wide open and it has to be considered a bad decision because if he had to choose a fade away shot over passing to a Bynum who has to shoot 20 feet from the basket, I'll take the fade away any day.

It's not as simple as "Lebron has passed it and Mo made the ball in clutch" so he has more chance of passing the ball. Again, this is where numbers won't show you reasons why these things occur.