I expect the Big 12 to stay together with a possible swap of Colorado and another school. Likely chain of events: 1) Notre Dame has the most leverage to leave. If they go to the Big 10, they want to be the only new team added. They can wait as long as they want to decide. The Big 10 is trying to play tough, but they're realistically begging ND. 2) The Big 12 has given Missouri and Nebraska until Friday or (possibly June 17) to decide to stay or leave. Neither have guaranteed offers. They are likely conditional. Nebraska has to wait until Notre Dame decides. If Notre Dame goes to the Big 10, Nebraska has to hope Missouri gets invited too to make an even 14 team league. But again, Notre Dame doesn't want a part of Missouri & Nebraska while Michigan, Northwestern, and Indiana don't want the conference's academic standing to slip by allowing those two in. 3) Colorado can stay or go. Nobody gives a shit, including those in the Big 12. If Colorado leaves (for more desired political affiliation of the schools in the Pac 10) the Big 12 poaches another school (TCU, Utah, BYU, CSU, etc.) and calls it a day. 4) Texas wants Baylor to go to the Pac 10 if the Texas schools are offered, but Stanford will reject any religious affiliated school (and maybe the Oklahoma schools) from joining the conference. This is why BYU (and to a lesser extent Utah) have not gotten invites yet. That will end up being the deal breaker for the Texas schools. 5) Everything hinges on Nebraska. They need to decide soon, but Notre Dame will be taking their sweet ass time. If Notre Dame says no, it would likely mean Nebraska alone got an invite. The longer it takes, the more likely they are to simply stay in the Big 12. The uncertainty affects recruiting and Nebraska's recruiting pool has diminished since the 90's and they need to keep Texas open. Texas recruits ignore schools that don't play Texas colleges.