It will be very interesting to see how this develops, particularly in California where Teslas are omnipresent. Perhaps that means they will build enough supercharger capacity for 80% peak times but perhaps they'll never get ahead of the curve, who knows. I'm a bit surprised they aren't charging for supercharger access when they did for the smaller battery Model S. I'd be pissed if I was an S60 owner, particularly if I paid $2k for the access. Really glad I cancelled my deposit on the X and got one on the 3. Feel much better about this car having seen a few X's around and realizing how difficult it would be to live with for our needs.
Since I'm in a multi-car household, the supercharging concern is muted since we can always take our ICE car for trips longer than 100 miles each way. Of course if you take a lot of road trips and your Tesla is your only car, then supercharging is a material factor. When we were contemplating the Model X as our all around car including Tahoe trips, we thought about the impact of fighting for time at the supercharger and it wasn't super attractive but the 3 is more of a no brainer for us since we won't be using it for long road trips and won't take it to Tahoe (well, depending on what the Y SUV brings to the table).
Going to the gas station is one of life's hidden nuisances so I greatly look forward to largely cutting them out of my life. If I were commuting again, it would certainly weigh heavily in my decision to get an electric car. Since I'm no longer driving regularly, it's a bit more academic.
One addendum to my earlier post - only US sales count toward the 200k car cap, so it's entirely possible the full $7500 federal tax credit will be available. Even if they blow through the cap, a reduced tax credit is available for a year (it cuts in half for two quarters and then in half again for two more). Unfortunately the California tax credit is now unavailable for people with high household incomes so we may not qualify for that, depending on how things go in a few years. Incidentally, the whole dialogue about the tax credits being a subsidy for the rich is so ridiculous. The whole point of the tax credits was to subsidize electric car makers, not to subsidize buyers. In a bow to idiocy, California is now only making the full tax credit available to less affluent people - and the last thing we should be doing is incentivizing people without lots of disposable income to buy high priced new cars. I guess the only surprise is that it took this long for stupidity to win out.
Are you sure it's not going to start with a 570 or 650?