2010 Kentucky Derby

post #16 of 23

3/5/10 at 6:51pm

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ChicagoRon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. White

ChicagoRon: "However, the anomalies of the Derby do not really happen consistently across racing. Don't you think it's possible that the Derby is that hard to handicap just because of the complexity of a 20 horse race, where a number of horses are changing surface and the fact that the horses are at an age where they may hit their prime after the prep races?" My method of fractional analysis works just as well for the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Clearly, rest + drugs = absurdly great performances + breakdowns.

The BC Juvie is basically the same set of conditions as the Derby. I suspect career handicappers look at these races as fun, but spend significantly less money on them than other races because they are bad bets / difficult to handicap.

Quote:

christinedaae: "You went on 2 paragraphs and didn't even hit on what is REALLY wrong and that's sires that have no business standing at stud, but becuase they were fast at the age of two, horrible confirmation at all, are bred to mares who haven't raced but have fancy pedigree's.. and you get eight bells." Can't argue with that. But my point was about prep-race fractions. Anybody can download charts and input them into a spreadsheet. Anybody can work out beaten lengths and get each horse's time for the first quarter, first half, therefore the second quarter, etc. That is, if you're interested enough to do it. I was and I did.

So, it sounds like you made a run at career handicapping and it did not go well. I don't think that experience justifies the indictment you are making of an industry that, quite frankly, is suffering badly enough financially that it would not be able to sustain itself if these accusations are true and were ever exposed. That doesn't mean they are patently false, but it seems unlikely based on the races that happen every week across the country.

Quote:

christinedaae: "To boot, Street Sense is the only horse to run a faster derby than barbaro the last decade.. well him and monarachos." That's more of a track vs. track comparison. Smarty Jones was consistently fast, even though he always ran on much slower surfaces.

This does not make any sense. The derby is always run on the same track. Unless you are talking about the individual horse's increase from prep races to derby times, in which case we get back to your suspect handicapping ability being just as likely a culprit as cheating.

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post #17 of 23

3/6/10 at 6:27am

Mr. White

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoRon

The BC Juvie is basically the same set of conditions as the Derby. I suspect career handicappers look at these races as fun, but spend significantly less money on them than other races because they are bad bets / difficult to handicap.

I bet in geometric proportion to value. I define "value" as a probability of winning that is less than the betting odds converted to probabilities (plus takeout, IRS, and my expenses). The BC Classic routinely offers better value than the Juvenile. As far as I can tell, the highest stakes races are much easier to handicap because the connections don't spare the horse, the fields are full which improves the odds of the winner, and so much information is available compared to ordinary races.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoRon

So, it sounds like you made a run at career handicapping and it did not go well. I don't think that experience justifies the indictment you are making of an industry that, quite frankly, is suffering badly enough financially that it would not be able to sustain itself if these accusations are true and were ever exposed. That doesn't mean they are patently false, but it seems unlikely based on the races that happen every week across the country.

The problems of computer arbitrage, past posting, increased takeout while field size decreased, and so forth, enormously reduced the number of races that had value, and enormously reduced the value that could be had in any race. The legalization of formerly illegal drugs, and the use of the diuretic Salix to flush out illegal medication, was just one of many problems that undermined racing. However, the invention of a drug that builds muscles and the cardiorespiratory system without any exercise at all--this was the final nail in the coffin.

(Here I distinguish between this new drug and steroids that require exercise to be effective.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoRon

This does not make any sense. The derby is always run on the same track. Unless you are talking about the individual horse's increase from prep races to derby times, in which case we get back to your suspect handicapping ability being just as likely a culprit as cheating.

If you recall, Churchill Downs had standing pools of water on the sloppy dirt track for Smarty Jones because of a downburst a few minutes before the race.

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post #18 of 23

3/6/10 at 11:37am

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ChicagoRon

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Smarty Jones also won the Preakness and was edged out by a narrow margin in the Belmont IIRC. THat does not sound like a drug-induced fluke to me, but hey. You obviously have more experience in handicapping than I do. I am a casual player, and I do it much more for the atmosphere than to make money (although my triple-crown and BC history is net positive I believe).

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post #19 of 23

3/7/10 at 8:18am

Mr. White

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoRon

Smarty Jones also won the Preakness... THat does not sound like a drug-induced fluke to me...

I was suggesting that Barbaro was the drug-induced fluke and that Smarty Jones would have beat him had they raced against each other.

We could ignore the nexus of several really bizarre issues, put the best spin on the 2006 Derby, and say that somebody had to win in a weak field. OK. We won't speak ill of the dead even if doing so might help prevent other unnecessary breakdowns. But what about Closing Argument and the other suspicious top finishers since? How many times are we going to say that a colt was "one-of-a-kind" and had "unique circumstances"? And if they're all "unique" nowadays, doesn't that show that something fundamental has changed--something that makes past performance data useless?

Before, if your horse didn't put in the hard racing to develop, your horse lost badly in Triple Crown races. Trainers tried every trick in the book to get around it. But they always failed. You can't "get around" your horse not being ready. Somehow now, horses magically can.

What is the Derby experience if not the thrill of athletic competition at its finest? If that's being replaced with hypodermic fixes, we might as well dress up and go to the Westminster Dog Show.

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post #20 of 23

3/7/10 at 11:40am

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ChicagoRon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. White

I was suggesting that Barbaro was the drug-induced fluke and that Smarty Jones would have beat him had they raced against each other. And if they're all "unique" nowadays, doesn't that show that something fundamental has changed--something that makes past performance data useless? Before, if your horse didn't put in the hard racing to develop, your horse lost badly in Triple Crown races. Trainers tried every trick in the book to get around it. But they always failed. You can't "get around" your horse not being ready. Somehow now, horses magically can. What is the Derby experience if not the thrill of athletic competition at its finest? If that's being replaced with hypodermic fixes, we might as well dress up and go to the Westminster Dog Show.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...ps/barbaro.pdf I am not sure how being undefeated in five races (including 1 Grade 1 and two Grade 3 stakes) and running triple digit Byers in two of them does not qualify for "hard races" or readiness for a triple crown race. It happens that I won a good amount of money on Barbaro in that race. When I look at the PP, I can see why.

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post #21 of 23

3/8/10 at 3:18pm

christinedaae

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. White

TexasLidig8r: "Soooooooo.... does that mean we shouldn't drink mint juleps, smoke a great cigar, take our women home afterwards, tell them to leave the hat, garter belt and stockings on and then do unspeakable things to them that we will remember the rest of our lives???"

By all means do so. Just pick up a bunch of losing tickets from the clubhouse floor, bring them back to your seat, flash 'em at Blondie while you're putting 'em in your pocket, and tell her you got the sure winner. Shhh...it's a secret!

ChicagoRon: "However, the anomalies of the Derby do not really happen consistently across racing. Don't you think it's possible that the Derby is that hard to handicap just because of the complexity of a 20 horse race, where a number of horses are changing surface and the fact that the horses are at an age where they may hit their prime after the prep races?"

My method of fractional analysis works just as well for the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Clearly, rest + drugs = absurdly great performances + breakdowns.

By "juice" I mean the drug that causes body development that mimics the aftereffects of exercise. By using the drug, there is nothing in past performances that would indicate that the horse would improve greatly in his next start. Only the insiders knows. Insider betting on inside information is illegal in that other stock market. Why not in horse racing?

Another solution would be to abandon past performances, and have the Racing Form publish medical charts.

christinedaae: "You went on 2 paragraphs and didn't even hit on what is REALLY wrong and that's sires that have no business standing at stud, but becuase they were fast at the age of two, horrible confirmation at all, are bred to mares who haven't raced but have fancy pedigree's.. and you get eight bells."

Can't argue with that. But my point was about prep-race fractions. Anybody can download charts and input them into a spreadsheet. Anybody can work out beaten lengths and get each horse's time for the first quarter, first half, therefore the second quarter, etc. That is, if you're interested enough to do it. I was and I did.

As far as her prep race record was concerned, Eight Belles was a good bet for runner-up. As I said, beginning with Closing Argument, then Barbaro, then many more, colts finished well in the Derby with many prep-race fractions several standard deviations from the norm for winners and top finishers.

christinedaae: "To boot, Street Sense is the only horse to run a faster derby than barbaro the last decade.. well him and monarachos."

That's more of a track vs. track comparison. Smarty Jones was consistently fast, even though he always ran on much slower surfaces.

BTW, for turfers, look up Go And Go.

I am 26 and I have been around horses for almost 20 years. I exclusive play the southern California circuit and I turn a nice profit, enough to where I was able to take 2 years off work after I sold my first company before I started black17media.com which I own and run and enough to where if I decided I wanted to quite tomorrow I could, no questions asked. I haven't used a speed figure or pp in at last 3 years so I dont' know who you are talking to.. DRF PP's to me nothing but a reference point to get a point across.

Horse racing's biggest problems are perception problems.

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post #22 of 23

3/29/10 at 12:13am

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