2010 Kentucky Derby

I am in.

Need to edit the thread title to include a Conne reference.

I thought he usually raced whales?

while he's good he wont' take to the dirt, at least at a level to win the derby. he's quite good though, they run on artifical surface where he's been winning.

I LOVE mint juleps. I used to throw a Derby party every year where you had to wear an item of seersucker and women had to wear sundresses. Served mint juleps. Awesome time. Might need to resurrect that in Tally.

2010 Connetucky Derby. Hopefully I will be able to attend a Derby party in Virginia this year. I bet they are down with the seersucker.

the kentucky derby is decadent and depraved, like the man said

I pretty much stopped following the Derby ever since trainers started using drugs that induce muscle and cardiorespiratory development that mimics exercise. Closing Argument and Barbaro never belonged in the exacta. In many, many fractional-time analyses, their prep-race records were several standard deviations off the norms of winners and of runners-up. They were completely out of sync with well-documented fractions since at least 1988. The last few Derbies were won and had super-high-fives of horses with prep-race records that suggest miserable defeats in any earlier years.

Worse still, since only Salix and Bute are reported, the $2 bettor has no idea how much any horse has been juiced. The insiders withhold juice from their own entries and bet heavily on the horse they heard was heavily juiced. They basically rob the bet pools.

I won't raise a mint julep to a cheat. I don't care if some fairly worthless non-cheats just so happen to beat horribly worthless fields. Racing is fixed.

Soooooooo.... does that mean we shouldn't drink mint juleps, smoke a great cigar, take our women home afterwards, tell them to leave the hat, garter belt and stockings on and then do unspeakable things to them that we will remember the rest of our lives???

I'm new here but I am extremely entrinched in the world of thoroughbreds, I own a few actually.

There are a bunch of misconceptions in the sport that are no ones fault but the sports becuase they have piss poor marketing efforts.


how does an undefeated Florida derby winner not belong in the excata lol?

I mean I didn't have him.. but to say he didn't belong in the exacta like it's some devise statement is kinda amateurish? His numbers didn't match? Only Big Brown ran a faster florida derby the last decade (up until last year at least)

To boot, Street Sense is the only horse to run a faster derby than barbaro the last decade.. well him and monarachos.

There are some that did not belong. Mine that bird did not belong. But barbaro? Seriously?

I knew quite a few that had closing argument including john white who is the paddock host and morning line odd maker at santa anita.


Also, Phenylbutazone ("bute") is not juice. All drugs aren't steroids. Secretariat ran on bute. It's nothing more than a horsey anti antiflammatory.

That is like saying football players are on steriods becuase they take asprin before they play a game. Its just not true.

I am not a fan of lasix myself.. but it again, is not a steroid. it's a dillutric that helps with horses who bled when they run. I don't like it. I think equate it to a bodybuilding using creatine to get the most out of him.. it's not natural but it's not cheating either. But in the end it hurts the bred becuase horses become dependent on it.


You went on 2 paragraphs and didn't even hit on what is REALLY wrong and that's sires that have no business standing at stud, but becuase they were fast at the age of two, horrible confirmation at all, are bred to mares who haven't raced but have fancy pedigree's.. and you get eight bells.

I'm worrying your ill gotten misconceptions are going to stop you from enjoying a wonderful event.

There are trainers who cheat and they get delt with harshly when caught. But using bute and lasix is not cheating.

But i don't blame you, I blame the NTRA and tracks for not having a central governing body and getting it's head out it's butt.

Also, the kentucky derby itself has some of the most strigent drug testing of any race in the world.

All this talk of drugs and drugs... do you know that in the history of the kentucky derby there has been 1, count em.. 1 positive test in 136 years in the kentucky derby, and that was Dancer's Image in 1968 who won but was disqualified becuase he took bute, and bute was legal in NY but not legal in kentucky at the time and t was not out his system in time of the test.

that is the only positive drug test in the kentucky derbies history.

+1
I don't like a 20 horse field except it that it makes an ideal race for patient, late closers. These horses should hit their prime after the prep races because they are still babies. I think what we may be learning from the last few years of racing is to watch the QH trainers.

what you really need to watch are horses running on turf and not on the derby trail.

the derby is not so much who is hte best horse but who can actually run 10 furlongs.

half the horses in the race if not more want no part of 10F whatsoever.

Barbaro and big Brown both started their career off on turf. there is a horse named Nordic Truce at gulfstream running on turf that I think is the real deal. Most turf horses have no problem running 10F as it's the pedigree.

Look for a turf horse to strut his stuff then give dirt a try to see if they take to it. Turf is easier on young developing horses as well which is another reason why I see alot of really good horses on turf right now.

speaking of barbaro, his full little brother (Leantor) should be in the Florida derby and he's actually not a bad horse at all. He's not barbaro but it would not shocke me to see him in the Kentucky derby

From the book "lameness: recognizing and treating the horse's most common ailment"



Page 143

Nonsterodial anti infmallatory drugs or NSAIDS are amoung the most common anti-anflammotory therapies used in horses. They relieve inflammation by blocking some of the same inflammatory reactions that corticosteriods block, yet they are not steriods. Hence, their rather involved name

The NSAIDs that are used in horses inc lude:

1. Phenylbutazone (or bute)
2.flunxin
3. Ketoprofen
4. meclofenamic acid
5. dipyrone
6. asprin
7. ibprofen
8. indomethacin
9. naproxen


Actions


NSAIDs work by preventing the production of some of the inflammatory substances released by damaged cells. Some inflammatory substances cause pain, so NSAIDs relieve pain by resolving inflammation, not by just blocking pain. By reducing the negative efects of inflammation these drugs can also promote healing. So they are not just masking the horse's pain- They are a valuable therpay when used correctly.




so I say again...what is the problem?'

The problem is that the name "bute" sounds like something illegal and horse racing is too stupid to do anything about it. "oh he's giving a horse bute that killer!".

TexasLidig8r: "Soooooooo.... does that mean we shouldn't drink mint juleps, smoke a great cigar, take our women home afterwards, tell them to leave the hat, garter belt and stockings on and then do unspeakable things to them that we will remember the rest of our lives???"

By all means do so. Just pick up a bunch of losing tickets from the clubhouse floor, bring them back to your seat, flash 'em at Blondie while you're putting 'em in your pocket, and tell her you got the sure winner. Shhh...it's a secret!

ChicagoRon: "However, the anomalies of the Derby do not really happen consistently across racing. Don't you think it's possible that the Derby is that hard to handicap just because of the complexity of a 20 horse race, where a number of horses are changing surface and the fact that the horses are at an age where they may hit their prime after the prep races?"

My method of fractional analysis works just as well for the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Clearly, rest + drugs = absurdly great performances + breakdowns.

By "juice" I mean the drug that causes body development that mimics the aftereffects of exercise. By using the drug, there is nothing in past performances that would indicate that the horse would improve greatly in his next start. Only the insiders knows. Insider betting on inside information is illegal in that other stock market. Why not in horse racing?

Another solution would be to abandon past performances, and have the Racing Form publish medical charts.

christinedaae: "You went on 2 paragraphs and didn't even hit on what is REALLY wrong and that's sires that have no business standing at stud, but becuase they were fast at the age of two, horrible confirmation at all, are bred to mares who haven't raced but have fancy pedigree's.. and you get eight bells."

Can't argue with that. But my point was about prep-race fractions. Anybody can download charts and input them into a spreadsheet. Anybody can work out beaten lengths and get each horse's time for the first quarter, first half, therefore the second quarter, etc. That is, if you're interested enough to do it. I was and I did.

As far as her prep race record was concerned, Eight Belles was a good bet for runner-up. As I said, beginning with Closing Argument, then Barbaro, then many more, colts finished well in the Derby with many prep-race fractions several standard deviations from the norm for winners and top finishers.

christinedaae: "To boot, Street Sense is the only horse to run a faster derby than barbaro the last decade.. well him and monarachos."

That's more of a track vs. track comparison. Smarty Jones was consistently fast, even though he always ran on much slower surfaces.

BTW, for turfers, look up Go And Go.