Alden Natty CXL is my favorite. After handling the natural AEs in store, I'd rather pay the Alden price premium.
The 1 last is fuller and rounder if that means anything. I would start TTS and work my way from there. I tried the Katmai. The toe box and heel were fine, but the mouth was huge. I couldn't close it around my ankle. Probably too big, but I went with the suede Neumok instead.
I ordered two more since I realized that this is quite a good deal. The Free shipping code (SHIPJULY) stopped working though, so I just called them and added it to my previous order. All good!
Honestly with a shoe like this, you need to just try it on. This is a common shoe they have at Nordstroms as well, so it might be worth heading to a local one if you have any in the area. If not, AE is very good with exchanges. If you feel you need a different size, ship it back and they will get another size to you within a reasonable amount of time.
Also, check out the reviews on their website and see what others have commented on the fit/sizing.