Texas only gains 0.3 more yards per game than Florida. While Texas has more yards passing, they also average over a yard less per attempt, and they have thrown the ball 380 times to Florida's 232.
Florida averages a full 1.1 yards more per rush than Texas on 54 more attempts.
The teams are pretty damn close defensively. Both teams have played a ridiculously easy schedule, though not by design. In both leagues the "contenders" were down. However, Texas' schedule is slightly worse.
The two big things that stand out when you compare the teams are red zone offense, where Texas has a big advantage, and turnovers, where Florida has a substantial lead.
Also, while Texas has given up as many sacks as Florida, Texas has not played one team with a decent defensive line, including Oklahoma. Florida, on the other hand, has played better (slightly) better defensive line units. Florida also gets more sacks from it's ends, which leads me to believe they can contain McCoy scrambling better than Texas can contain Tebow.
These teams seem really evenly matched. A couple of factors favor Florida in my mind:
First, Florida has sputtered around on offense against all manner of defenses, from good to bad. However, when push came to shove, the offense found a way to put points on the board. The defense typically got better as the games wore on, giving up a total of 39 yards in the second half in their last three games.
Texas has not faced a decent defense all year with the exception of Oklahoma. Against that team, Texas only scored 16.
I don't think Texas is really used to grinding out games, while Florida is. If the game turns into an ugly slugfest, which is what I expect, Florida has the advantage in my opinion.
Second, I believe that Florida's punter is better, and that may well be what decides this game.
Also, I'm not willing to bet against Tebow. The kid has a force of will unlike anything I've ever seen in college football. He won't look pretty doing it, but he can basically carry the team to a win. I'm not sure if McCoy can do that.
Of course, this assumes Florida gets by Alabama, which is not a given.