Styleforum › Forums › General › Entertainment and Culture › 2009 NBA Playoffs
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

2009 NBA Playoffs - Page 3

post #31 of 1139
4/21/09 at 9:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by whacked View Post
That's one way to set yourself up for disappointment.

You're basing this off two regular season games? Cavs can easily win this.
Reply
Reply
post #32 of 1139
4/21/09 at 9:43am
Quote:
Originally Posted by why View Post
You're basing this off two regular season games? Cavs can easily win this.

Of course the past is only the past and does automatically produces reliable projections of future events, but is there a better way to predict the outcome of a particular matchup that to study, duh, recent matchups?


If anything, Fisher and Bryant's vast playoff experiences give the Lakers another edge over the Cavs.
Reply
Reply
post #33 of 1139
4/21/09 at 11:08am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by whacked View Post
Of course the past is only the past and does automatically produces reliable projections of future events, but is there a better way to predict the outcome of a particular matchup that to study, duh, recent matchups?

You'd have to do a regression of teams with similar records during the regular season that had a lopsided season series result (3-1, 4-0, 2-0, etc.) and then see if the result was predictive in the playoffs if the two teams met. There is a good chance it is a shitty predictor. There is a good chance it is a good one. But the assumption that it is a good predictor is unsubstantiated.
Reply
Reply
post #34 of 1139
4/21/09 at 11:11am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MetroStyles View Post
You'd have to do a regression of teams with similar records during the regular season that had a lopsided season series result (3-1, 4-0, 2-0, etc.) and then see if the result was predictive in the playoffs if the two teams met. There is a good chance it is a shitty predictor. There is a good chance it is a good one. But the assumption that it is a good predictor is unsubstantiated.

Say that again. I can't hear you.


Reply
Reply
post #35 of 1139
4/21/09 at 11:15am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by whacked View Post
Say that again. I can't hear you.



What point are you trying to prove? I'm a fan of neither team. You are acting like a homer.
Reply
Reply
post #36 of 1139
4/21/09 at 11:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MetroStyles View Post
What point are you trying to prove? I'm a fan of neither team. You are acting like a homer.

It's a sports discussion. And I've been a Lakers fan for as long as I could remember, have vigorously defended them on here multiple times on the past. So there.



But seriously, if you don't like looking at recent matchups, what alternative do you like? We're talking about same season, same personnel (except the last game when Bynum was out), same coaching. Is it possible that LeBron had a subpar showing both times, or that the Cavs decided to lay low and only show their true color in a possible Final matchup? Definitely, but not very likely if you ask me. Again, please propose a measure that you deem more useful.
Reply
Reply
post #37 of 1139
4/21/09 at 11:35am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by whacked View Post
It's a sports discussion. And I've been a Lakers fan for as long as I could remember, have vigorously defended them on here multiple times on the past. So there.



But seriously, if you don't like looking at recent matchups, what alternative do you like? We're talking about same season, same personnel (except the last game when Bynum was out), same coaching. Is it possible that LeBron had a subpar showing both times, or that the Cavs decided to lay low and only show their true color in a possible Final matchup? Definitely, but not very likely if you ask me. Again, please propose a measure that you deem more useful.

Vegas odds.
Reply
Reply
post #38 of 1139
4/21/09 at 1:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MetroStyles View Post
Vegas odds.

I take it you have studied P&L accounts of past NBA title bets from the sportsbetting division of all Vegas houses? And performed the necessary regressions, after filtering out the nutcases who would always bet on the Thunders even though the only way Durant and co. can win the playoff is in NBA Live 2010?


There is a good chance it is a shitty predictor. There is a good chance it is a good one. But the assumption that it is a good predictor is unsubstantiated.


Reply
Reply
post #39 of 1139
4/21/09 at 1:50pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by whacked View Post
I take it you have studied P&L accounts of past NBA title bets from the sportsbetting division of all Vegas houses? And performed the necessary regressions, after filtering out the nutcases who would always bet on the Thunders even though the only way Durant and co. can win the playoff is in NBA Live 2010?


There is a good chance it is a shitty predictor. There is a good chance it is a good one. But the assumption that it is a good predictor is unsubstantiated.



At the end of the playoffs, let's compare Vegas odds performance for picking series winners and the eventual champion vs. the season series! Then we can see which was better this year.
Reply
Reply
post #40 of 1139
4/21/09 at 1:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MetroStyles View Post
At the end of the playoffs, let's compare Vegas odds performance for picking series winners and the eventual champion vs. the season series! Then we can see which was better this year.

Touche.


Wait... from Vegas Insider http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/#2178

ODDS TO WIN THE 2008-09 NBA FINALS
Team Open Current
Cleveland Cavaliers 15/1 EVEN
Los Angeles Lakers 5/2 4/5
Boston Celtics 7/2 8/1
Denver Nuggets 22/1 10/1
Orlando Magic 15/1 12/1
San Antonio Spurs 7/1 18/1
Houston Rockets 15/1 18/1


Reply
Reply
post #41 of 1139
4/21/09 at 2:01pm
worst consecutive coach of the year winners ever.
Reply
Reply
post #42 of 1139
4/21/09 at 2:14pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by whacked View Post
Touche.


Wait... from Vegas Insider http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/#2178

ODDS TO WIN THE 2008-09 NBA FINALS
Team Open Current
Cleveland Cavaliers 15/1 EVEN
Los Angeles Lakers 5/2 4/5
Boston Celtics 7/2 8/1
Denver Nuggets 22/1 10/1
Orlando Magic 15/1 12/1
San Antonio Spurs 7/1 18/1
Houston Rockets 15/1 18/1




Yep - although then again this won't be a difference-maker as both methods favor LA in this case.
Reply
Reply
post #43 of 1139
4/21/09 at 8:43pm
Lakers go up 2-0 tonite.
Reply
Reply
post #44 of 1139
4/21/09 at 9:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by sho'nuff View Post
Lakers go up 2-0 tonite.

word.
Reply
Reply
post #45 of 1139
4/21/09 at 9:09pm
piston tie 1-1
Reply
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Entertainment and Culture
Styleforum › Forums › General › Entertainment and Culture › 2009 NBA Playoffs