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Posts by guyver00

Probably best way to bet Greece is with NBG.
Fuck sake. Pared down my SWHC holdings because it was getting a bit big in my portfolio, plus I wanted to switch some money to TSLA. And then SWHC shot up another 12% after paring down. FML
Wow, this is pure gold, glad it was tagged on the SF front page.
Sold my TWTR holdings, damn thing isn't making me money. SWHC is my best performer so far outside of my index portfolio.
Temple of Jawnz? The best leather jacket maker that nobody has ever heard of? Haha, one whiff of that thread and I'm going dizzy.
Haha, I didn't know anyone is actually keeping scores here, as if anything posted here matters in our respective lives. Unless there is a Nobel laureate chiming in on gambler's fallacy (Paul Krugman comes to mind), this will just descend into a flame war...which is kinda stupid.
Right back at you, buddy. When you descend into ad hominem attack, we all know this argument is over.
Huh? How is it possible for you to claim that it's improbable for you to lose 11 roulette spins/coin tosses in a row? Each round is an individual round, and you bet on each round before it begins. The roulette/coin doesn't have memory of previous round's result, so it doesn't care that the last 11 results were red/head. By that definition, the result of the 12th round is independent of the 11 previous ones.Having 11 reds/heads in the previous 11 rounds are just as likely...
^^ They don't call it gambler's "FALLACY" for nothing. Otherwise it would just be called gambler's "FANTASY".
Here is a nice post on gambler's fallacy: http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/04/recency-hot-hands-and-gamblers-fallacy.html I particularly like his blog about behavioral finance. I also bought his book and learned a lot.
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