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Posts by NameBack

As much as I dislike Cameron in general, he absolutely made the right call here. The EU treaty being discussed is basically a pro-cyclical recession-intensifying suicide pact. It's not a "fiscal union" so much as a really, phenomenally stupid neoclassical set of restrictions on macroeconomic policy tools for member nations. All for the sake of...what? Assuaging the bond markets? Yeah, that worked well.
Well, we're just testing right now. Pretty much nothing to report yet -- we won't really know if it works or not for at least six months, and frankly even that is a pretty small sample set. We're just glad it hasn't tanked.
I made a little money on ZNGA today riding the humps. Just something to keep me occupied while the fucking algorithm loses money on a long position on SPY today.
So what do you guys think of the last three days or so? There hasn't really been any substantive news out of Europe either way, but everything is going down the tubes in a highly correlated way, Italian bond yields rising, Euro falling, etc. Have to say I have enjoyed a little Schadenfreude with the huge hit that gold took today. Beginnings of a crash? I sort of feel that way personally, but I'm pretty bearish in general so I always see a crash right around the corner....
This fuckin' market, man. I love how the budget report comes out, everything takes a dip immediately, and then everyone simultaneously realizes that no one actually cares about the budget report and it reverses. It's crazy how sensitive everyone is to macro news these days.
I did use my own money. Or do you mean I should have only used my own money?
Oh, I agree. And you see that outside of trading, too. There's so many people who use archaic, disproved, or otherwise inadequate methods to make decisions just because those systems are traditional and they remove decision making responsibility. Focus groups are a great example. Focus groups are totally statistically invalid, unscientific, and of no proven usefulness. But they take the blame off the manager who ordered them. If something goes wrong, you can say "but the...
Oh yeah, you're absolutely right. I can't help but monitor the damn thing, even though I know I should really just sort of sit back and passively manage it with some zen-style serenity until at least the 6mo mark. But, hey, easier said than done! Instead I spend my day flipping between bberg.com and ft.com and watching CNBC and freaking out as if I'm an active trader. It's stupid, but I'm sure I'll get over it after a while. At least the algo keeps me from trading...
Well, I built the thing so I still feel responsible for its positions. And it's still early so still stresses me out when it loses money.But, in short, no. I trade solely with the algo because I know I'm not a particularly skilled trader using traditional human decision making, and it would take me a long time to learn before I trusted my own decision-making. Using my judgment over the algorithm's wouldn't make sense, because my judgment isn't very good yet. Also, the only...
Eh, I think we often overestimate how much the market is news-driven. I mean, news obviously prompts significant changes in prices, but how that news is interpreted and which news is paid attention to are of dubious consistency. Last week we rallied on domestic data despite rising Euro-area bond yields. This week, we fall on creditwatch. It varies.In any case, in simulation we had a pretty great run where it was hitting political events on the way up and on the way back...
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