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Posts by Gibonius

I guess if the downside is the US putting more effort into getting a better education system, it's not all bad. But the methods end up being lousy because we're trying to emulate specific countries based on flawed metrics.That's even better then. Reggs posted in the Game of Thrones thread that he has "combat experience" from doing LARPing, and posted a video for proof.
The US press is utterly uncritical about the numbers reported by other countries. We'll get a comparison of the educational achievement of "China" against the US, and it's really "elite magnet schools in Shanghai." Or many countries just lie. We actually try to get accurate numbers and then beat ourselves up over it.I'm so glad I caught up on the GoT thread so I could catch this reference.
The people saying Trump will win a landslide are just insane, I don't know how even the most rabid partisan could believe that. I guess they've just bought into the mystique a little too much.I wouldn't put money down on a Democratic win, but it's difficult to envision how Trump repeats the process of winning the primaries on a larger scale with a much more diverse electorate. Even against Hillary.
I don't know that I really buy Adams analysis, but yeah, we'll see. Trump defied a lot of predictions because the statistics suck for primaries, but they're a LOT more reliable for generals.Assuming 9/11 still happened, or even if it was prevented, Afghanistan seems like it would have been a suitable target. Two wars is just greedy if you're wagging the dog.It would have been interesting to see how "liberal" culture evolved under a Democratic administration instead of...
Coal is getting killed by natural gas anyway, so not much of a difference there.It's hard to really gauge the impact of the Iraq war, but it seems to be huge. Without it, we almost certainly don't have ISIS, the Syria crisis, probably no refugee crisis in Europe. Maybe not even the whole Arab Spring, for good and (mostly) bad. That's a couple trillion in US debt too.Also, $1.7 trillion for Iraq by itself? Holy shit. Didn't realize it was that much. 10% of the whole...
About voting for Hillary? Probably. But staying home is going to look appealing I'd imagine. Letting Hillary ride for four years and then having a more mainstream Republican challenger is not the worst outcome in the universe.Maybe Trump doesn't need all the typical Republican votes if he can pull enough people who typically don't vote.
I think the problem for Trump is that he cannot just assume he's going to pick up the 50% of Republican primary voters who didn't vote for him, or the significant fraction of mainstream voters who didn't vote in the primaries but usually vote in the generals. His core group of supporters in the primaries isn't even close to enough to win the generals, so he needs to turn out a much bigger and more diverse group. Are the normal crop of Republican voters going to show up...
This is one of those "I wonder what planet this guy is living on" posts.Nobody who is supporting Hillary right now is going to vote for Trump. Many Republican voters are openly flirting with not voting, or even voting for Hillary (and they're willing to talk about it!). Some Bernie voters, mostly the anti-trade types, might cross over, but Trump's brand of authoritarianism isn't going to appeal to the core group of progressives that makes up most of Bernie's voters.
Or just "holy shit Trump could be President."There are lots of salty Bernie supporters right now who are saying they won't vote for Hillary. I doubt that holds up by November. This is pretty common in contested primaries, the runner up's supporters usually come around. I think Trump is going to be more of an exception to that, like he has been with many other things.
Punishment enough right there.
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