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Posts by Teger

well then anyone interested in some friendly election wagers? i'd wager: clinton takes MI and PA clinton wins VA by at least 5 points
Here's the problem: I assume this is based on national data, right? National data is irrelevant. It's like Hilary (or even Trump's) favorability ratings -- who cares? What the election is about - just like the past elections - is the ability of candidates to win states that will realistically be in play. Is Trump going to win Mass. barring some unforseen disaster? No. I also don't see any prospect of Trump taking a state like PA or MI. So what it comes down to is can Trump...
No. Which candidate could realistically do that? You'd need someone who could win traditionally blue states while not winning red states?
FWIW, I bet Hilary takes Virginia by 7 points, if not more. Trump is poison to the Republican voters in NoVA (who voted for Kasich) and the state is already blue.
presumably he's already in the bunker
this article does a decent job speaking to my overall point - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/republicans-have-a-massive-electoral-map-problem-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-donald-trump/ - i guess it could be a conversation if trump somehow carries michigan (I don't think that's in the cards), but he's definitely not going to take VA and I'd be surprised if he takes NC too. VA is basically a blue state for all intents and purposes at the national...
will also be curious to see congressional candidates campaign w/ trump or try to distance themselves.
what i said is that the electoral calculus doesn't paint a kind picture for trump, which obviously only is an issue in states which will be contested. i think when push comes to shove trump appeals to less white voters than most people believe, and his unfavorability with women is a big, big problem.
what i'm curious about is where the traditional big business republican donors fall. if trump has really abandoned big business completely to focus on protectionism (which i'm not sure he will), are they just going to sit this one out? support congressional candidates, but not trump?
if i was hilary i'd blanket the contested states with two ads: an ad of all of his anti-mexico rhetoric, and ad with all of his anti-women rhetoric. game over.trump is definitely entertaining, but i think in a 2 person race he's going to be exposed really quickly. hilary is, if nothing else, a professional, and she's way too experienced to get into trouble with him on a debate stage.
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