I would choose the one with less taper, like the flat one above - that makes more of a difference as less/no taper makes it look more solid, masculine and utilitarian like the watch. Cordovan would be cool.
Knowing your taste a little by now, I did have an inkling when you posted the "new at Baselworld" teaser. And "one watch" definitely pointed at this.
It looks fantastic on you. I really like it: understated combination of historical reference and clean, modern styling. Great kop, Frank!
Honestly I don't see much added value in getting a TAG from the AD. Unless your heart is really set on the latest model and/or an in-house movement, there is little risk in buying one from a grey dealer. Jomashop is the obvious one, and the discounts are always there. Ashford have them occasionally, and I'm sure there are others.