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Posts by NoVaguy

Voters didn't really begin to sour on the war until late 2005. The war was a mild plus, not a minus, for actual voters in 2004. Also, wage growth and gdp growth was among the best for W's tenure, as he managed toget his local peak in 2004.2004, by the way, both parties really built up their voter bases. Kerry added 8 million+ votes to Gore's tally, while W added 11.6 million+ more votes from 2000.Even then, W nearly screwed it up. The fundamentals favored W but Kerry...
Old one. Census gets done during the 2020 year, 2022 is the first federal elections using the new census.According to Wasserman's count, the margin in MI-WI-PA is 79,690 votes today, as a big slug of philly absentees/provisionals came in late last week. It might change depending on any more absentees and provisionals coming in. Still, not much of a margin for an incumbent to lose in 2020.
A lot of voter ID rules were recently struck down at the appellate level, so the number of jurisdictions impacted was minimized that way. Would really like to see jurisdictional analysis, not this broader national analysis.
Well, we are talking about Trump's reelection, so we're really just concerned with 2020. More milennials will be voting in 2020, and less baby boomers. Trump did really well with baby boomers, and really bad with milennials. Same analysis essentially applies for hispanics. And while Trump won the white college educated, his performance was probably the worse the GOP did since 2004.
No and no.Millenial population is projected to peak in 2036 due to immigration.http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/Pew defines millenialAs for birthrates, Hispanics have the highest, followed by African Americans and then whites. You might be defining your territories/areas differently, so I would need to know what you mean by conservative and liberal areas. For example, you might be calling Arizona "conservative", but its...
Exit polls don't do a very good job of catching hispanic votes due to response rate issues. Voter file analysis is usually better.You are probably right on African Americans, but African Americans are pretty static %wise (12% of vote in 2016 as opposed to 13% in 2008 and 2012). IIRC, Trump was only at 8% on the exit polls versus Romneys 6% and McCain's 4%. (W got 11% in 2004)My big 3 for growing demographics is millenials, hispanics, and white college educated. There is...
The GOP is still an unpopular party in deep decline that's pissing off nearly every growing demographic. And Hillary is at 65.467 million right now and will get really close to 66 million votes this year once the counting is done. 70+ million is not out of the question for a fresh slate Democrat in 2020 in a relatively neutral environment.
3rd party vote will be a lot smaller in 2020. Another thing to think about: 62,039,572; 59,950,323; 60,934,407 and 62,813,613 (still counting) are the raw vote numbers the GOP has been getting since 2004. That's remarkably static, considering that in the same time period the Dems have gotten as low as 59,027,115 and as high as 69,499,428 in the same time period. And percentage-wise, Trump's 46.2% (and decreasing as we continue counting) is closer to McCain's 45.6% in...
There's a good argument to be made that he would have defeated Trump this year by holding the upper midwest and PA. He probably would have done better in the Scranton area and similar large town/small city regions which was an area of Dem bleeding. (Margin change in Lackawanna county was something like +26700 for Dems in 2012 to +2600 or less in 2016, Luzerne went from +6000 Dems in 2012 to +26000 GOP in 2016). Plus, no Comey letter hijinks goosing up the last minute...
Founded in 1995. Its arbitrary because its the entire lifetime of that particular incarnation.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Entertainment_ResortsI believe the creation of this entity is part of the reason why Trump has been able avoid paying taxes.
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