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Posts by NoVaguy

I think Rubio has one more shot left in him if Hillary wins and if he's willing to go in 2020. Jeb, I think, is done. Rand never had a chance.
Typical pool of Democratic candidates includes VPs, Senators and Governors. But a large number of Democratic governors and senators from moderate states got slaughtered in 2010 and 2014, and what was left was oldtimers with no chance, new senators from the 2012 cohort with no large constituency, or extreme liberals from coastal states.(Most governor races are off year races btw.)Had Hillary not run I think Kirsten Gillibrand would have taken a shot at it. As it was, the...
Sr's foreign policy was internationalist realist, not a neoconservative.Reagan's was idealistic but often just reflected the last person in the room with him when the decision was made.
Voters are getting tired of other people's representatives. Their own, not so much. I predict that 90%+ of the incumbents running in the house will get reelected.
LA Times/USC poll is a really weird poll. IIRC, they're using the same panel each time. Its never really been done before, and is interesting and exciting.
No. A number of public polls in 2012, especially Gallup*, had a lot of methodological errors (such as not contacting cell phones, not contacting latinos/Hispanics, bad LV screens, bad regional controls). RCP's final polls (all covering up to the day or 2 before the election) resulted in an average of Obama +0.7, when the actual result was Obama +3.7 (and actually 3.86% when the final count came out). Obama did not pick up 3% on the final day. He had most of them all...
Romney was never winning at any point in 2012. LV polls can easily be distorted by enthusiasm generating moments that distort response rates.
The market is pretty much out to get coal miners.
Its one thing if consolidation is by the weaker players, its another if its among the top players. Going from 5 to 3 is really problematic. I'm surprised they even tried - DOJ/FTC have been cracking down on this among the top players, such as with AT&T and Tmobile.
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