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Posts by NoVaguy

This kind of polarizing profile looks to me like it'll cause problems in a whole of states besides WI. I don't see Walker type winning PA or VA if he keeps this profile, although one could win the governors race in those. Walker might actually have to win WI in order to be president, especially since I think VA might be close to gone at the presidential level absent a good environment.Really, Sandoval is the best candidate, and he's already in his second term. The guy's...
2000 and 2004, Bush and Rove made a real attempt to win WI, and the Dems had no money for the general election, so they gambled on natural turnout advantages in WI (and a lot of other states) and put their turnout money elsewhere.In 2004 Dean and Trippi (a lot more Trippi than Dean) figured out how to use the internet for small money, but the approach wasn't mature enough to be implemented for the general for Kerry and the Kerry team (correctly, imho) betted almost...
Corrected the 2014/2012 mistake.All states are "weird" compared to the national.Special election was in June, about 5 months before the presidential election. 2.5M votes casted, so almost 600k less than the 3.07M in the general. Walker got 53.1% to Barretts 46.3%. But the raw numbers are interesting. Walker got less votes than Romney, not surprising, but they are close - 1.335M for walker, 1.407M for Romney. But Barret only gets 1.164M and Obama gets the 1.620M.I...
Small sample size. Very few governors have even had to go through a recall. Maybe 3 or 4 in the past century. Nearly everybody else who's been recalled committed misconduct except Gray Davis and Scott Walker.Some exit poll electorate numbers:Year: lib-mod-con; dem-ind-rep;2014: 23-41-35 36-27-372012: 24-40-35 36-31-322010: 21-42-37 37-27-312008: 23-47-31 39-29-33Turnout was 2.41M in 2014, 3.07M in 2012, 2.16M in 2010, and 2.98M in 2008. ...
Candidate I would be most worried about is NV Gov Brian Sandoval (even though he also is a 2010/2014 governor). I'm surprised/not surpised he's not looking at the 2016 election. 2020 may be too late. He might be hoping for the VP slot.
Recalls almost never work unless there's serious misconduct, Gray Davis being the exception that proves the rule (and again, Gray may survived but for a moderate-liberal GOP candidate like Arnold and CA's unusual 2 stage recall procedure) And recall elections are low turnout affairs that usually favor conservative voters.And the two years that Walker won were 2010 (a midterm and an antiobamacare reaction year) and 2014 (midterm and 6th year of administration effect). Two...
He's at an advantage for the primary but a disadvantage in the general because he's mostly Koch funded, and has barely won 3 elections in a state that is a lean Red in midterm/special elections but hard blue in presidential elections. But he's never won an election in a presidential year. So people look at him and he can win, but in reality, he's a lot weaker than he looks. He would be served by trying to go Senate first but that is not an option this year as the...
You have serious problems.
The new republic has a story on this as well.http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121417/indiana-religious-freedom-law-lgbt-discrimination-mostly-legalTitle: "Religious Freedom" Laws Don't Legalize LGBT Discrimination. That's Already Legal in Most of America.
Context matters. 1993 federal law was passed in the context of native American religious rights and the war on drugs. If I recall correctly, the federal law was a response to some case about the use of peyote in a religious setting getting people fired or imprisoned back then was upheld by the Supreme court, since peyote was on the controlled list then (and may be now, for all I know). It also predated the recent Hobby Lobby supreme court case, and hobby lobby decision...
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