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Posts by MSchapiro

GREK is an event play so the model is useless there. I have been doing a lot of research in the underlying companies though. A good 40% of the equity will be wiped out in the vent of a Greek default and another 30% are headquatered in Greece so there would only be a major loss if Greek exits the EMU. 10% (Coke HBC) wouldn't be the end of the world.If anything the better play would be looking at how the ETF is driving volume in the underlying stocks when it re balances. Who...
I prefer TDW over GLF. Pretty similar valuations at the moment but TDW is much more diversified in terms of their operating regions. That said I am long both.
Wear the socks that you expect to wear for the shoe. Made that mistake the first time around.
Hah, fair enough, but you'll have to take it up with Ede and Ravenscroft and their overpriced graduation robes as to where my "investment" funds went.
Really nice! I need to find an excuse to reward myself with one of those.   Do you guys do a graduation discount? :D
Sadly is the case with Italy.
Yeah I did the technical analysis on that today and came up with around 59 as my exit point and got out about there. I'm expecting a spike on the housing battery news, so may try buy in if there is a drop before that. Will sell again post that second spike if it comes, I just don't know enough about this industry to make a solid bet. For CMG I get a 5yr EPS implied CAGR of 24.6%. Will Chipotle hit an EPS of $45? Revenue alone would be $12B. Considering McDonalds is 18B...
I sold SCTY today. I'll try and get back in when the price drops a bit, although I'm not sure how the TSLA announcement about home batteries will mess with things.   Went in on some GLF in the low 13s. It will take a long time to pay back, but ultimately I see a lot of capital gains.   Also went in on some BHI on a few dips since the spread with HAL was good.
Basically yes to the first one, no to the second. It depends if the catalyst has been priced in. If it hasn't breaking through a high isn't strange, but if it has been priced in there may be a technical reason for the move rather than a fundamental change (i.e. Master's #3 overwhelms his #2) . If I see a stock breaking a high on no new news I tend to be more cautious because I know a lot of volume may soon be entering, especially now since it is earnings season.   Once a...
It is very relevant in technical analysis. Even if you are a fundamental investor you still need to see how technical investors will drive the market. If a stock breaks through a resistance point traders will likely bid it up. I personally try to invest in the opposite when too many people are taking a short position and drive the price well below fair value. Price isn't as important as the ratios. Unless there is a catalyst that will push the companies performance up or...
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