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Posts by AldenPyle

That sounds about right. I am no demographer but I think declines in birth rates should lag declines in fertility rates. Fertility rates are the number of births any given woman should have in her lifetime given current patterns. However, because of the high fertility rates of twenty years ago, there are an extremely high number of women in their peak fertility years. Each one of them will have fewer children than their mothers, but because there are so many women having...
Most of the those countries have had very sharp declines in fertility rates in the last couple of decades. I guess the UN numbers are projecting that those declines will continue bringing these countries to sub-replacement rates in the next century ultimately causing the population to tail off. Bangladesh, I think, is already at sub-replacement rates. I doubt they are actually modelling famines since I guess with continued technology advances, these countries could...
This is kind of fun to look at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm Seems like the ME should plateau about 50% larger than today. In 1965, Nigeria had 50 million people. Now, 150 million. In 2100, the UN projects 900 million.
I think there are about 100 guys at Guantanamo Bay who should be dreaming of a white Christmas 2016.
Its convenient for many countries to maintain the fiction that we are making slow progress to some sort of Israel-Palestine diplomatic agreement. But sometimes diplomatic fictions aren't really consistent with the needs of a democracy for openness and transparency. In this case, many Israelis, not completely groundlessly, are suspicious that the international community is pushing for the creation of a Palestinian state without peace. These suspicions were leading them to...
Our national strategy for dealing with concentrated urban poverty is to disperse it toward declining inner ring suburbs. This inversion of the urban population probably reduces the absolute level of poverty by increasing education and job opportunities for former slum residents. But mostly we just want to gentrify central cities. Which is probably a net good, but the cost is we are pushing marginal populations into those communities with the least resources to handle the...
http://www.webmd.com/brain/autism/searching-for-answers/autism-riseOver the last 40 years there has been an enormous increase in autism diagnoses and (probably?) an underlying increase in the actual occurrence of autism. There doesn't seem to be any good scientific explanation and parents have been linking vaccination to the onset of autism before the Lancet study. The basis of this seems to be a lot of anecdotes of people who swear their kid was just fine until they got...
Obama was raised as a Unitarian. Despite all the years he spent going to his wife's crazy church, I guess he is still a Unitarian at heart. That would explain why he is so insistent on seeing only the good part of other religions like Islam and also why he kind of seems semi-atheistic to a lot of people.
I'm not giving up on Romney'16. Jeb Bush has an L tatoo-ed in invisible ink on his forehead. Once a little heat is applied, it will be visible for all to see. As buoyant as he may seem, Christie is permanently weighted down by Jersey sleaze. Walker is better than I thought.
Bill Maher has a lot to answer for.
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