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Posts by AldenPyle

There was some ok stuff in this talk, but I didn't feel like this guy had much of a handle on anything about the economy occurring outside the City. Indeed, banking in US and UK have become pretty concentrated on managing the maturity/liquidity mismatch between mortgages and money markets. If you take it as given that real assets including houses are in fixed supply and you take it as given that nobody running the banking industry has any stake in the franchise value of...
Unfortunately, the lead exposure theory of crime doesn't really explain a lot of the demographics. It is true that crime exploded about 20 years after lead levels in the air rose rapidly due to leaded gasoline pollution. This is consistent with childhood exposure to lead causing people to have self-control issues as adults. However, when crime exploded it increased pretty much across the board. Meaning that crime exploded among older age cohorts that didn't have childhood...
The 1/2 season seems to be an extended epilogue in which all of the characters experience major events that sketch out the rest of their lives. Given the limited time left, I guess that once it seems that a characters story has a pin in it, then the pin will remain in place. Though the characters will make another appearance, Ken's, Megan's, and now Joan's stories have all been resolved.My guess is that Roger will go to LA to fire Lou Avery, hook up with Julia Ormond and...
For some reason that seemed like watching a bottle episode of Archer with Megan as Lana, Harry as Cyril, and the down-low waitress as Pam. If Peggy had growled like a cat when Mimi Rogers stroked her chin she would have been a dead-on Cheryl.
Turns out that in 539, Ostrogoth and Byzantine Roman armies were camped on opposite sides of the river Po, squaring for battle when they were each set upon in turn and destroyed by a horde of Franks.
That sounds about right. I am no demographer but I think declines in birth rates should lag declines in fertility rates. Fertility rates are the number of births any given woman should have in her lifetime given current patterns. However, because of the high fertility rates of twenty years ago, there are an extremely high number of women in their peak fertility years. Each one of them will have fewer children than their mothers, but because there are so many women having...
Most of the those countries have had very sharp declines in fertility rates in the last couple of decades. I guess the UN numbers are projecting that those declines will continue bringing these countries to sub-replacement rates in the next century ultimately causing the population to tail off. Bangladesh, I think, is already at sub-replacement rates. I doubt they are actually modelling famines since I guess with continued technology advances, these countries could...
This is kind of fun to look at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm Seems like the ME should plateau about 50% larger than today. In 1965, Nigeria had 50 million people. Now, 150 million. In 2100, the UN projects 900 million.
I think there are about 100 guys at Guantanamo Bay who should be dreaming of a white Christmas 2016.
Its convenient for many countries to maintain the fiction that we are making slow progress to some sort of Israel-Palestine diplomatic agreement. But sometimes diplomatic fictions aren't really consistent with the needs of a democracy for openness and transparency. In this case, many Israelis, not completely groundlessly, are suspicious that the international community is pushing for the creation of a Palestinian state without peace. These suspicions were leading them to...
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