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Posts by AldenPyle

Good news: GOP establishment trying to get Mitt back into the race. Nypost Bad news: Mitt is playing coy. Please help us, Mitt. You are our only hope.
Fair enough. If the scientific consensus is that carbon emissions have been driving surface temperatures up a milligrade per decade over the post-war era, consistent with very conservative models of greenhouse gas driven climate change, then I think I know how a debate on the cost-benefit analysis of radical emissions adjustment would play out. Models that deliver utterly catastrophic outcomes seem to require both speculative estimates of possible spillover effects and...
On page 155 of Chap 1 of the Physical Science Basis of the last IPCC AR(5), they list upper and lower bounds of the temperature increase over 1990 for three different model forecasts. For 2015, these were FAR [.33,.91], SAR[.23,47], TAR[.22,.70]. Än observed rise of .3 is well below the middle of the range for even the most conservative forecast.Gosh, the scientific consensus disappeared pretty quick there. I gotta say, if I have to choose between relying on the IPCC...
From Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Chap. 1, p. 131, of the IPCC A4(5), Chttps://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter01_FINAL.pdf {I added the horizontal axis}That doesn't look like the high end of the projections to me. To me that looks like temperature has gone up about .3C over the last 25 odd years. As far as I can tell, that is at the bottom end of the projections. For example,From the IPCC AR(4), "Since IPCC’s first report in...
Because the feedback effects are uncertain and contested. If the multiplier effects are near zero, which seems to be a respectable position, then the impact of increased greenhouse gases on global temperature will be near the bottom of the range of IPCC forecasts. If the climate change is near the bottom of the range of IPCC estimates, then its hard to justify the economic costs of changing greenhouse gas emissions.If anyone wants to understand this position, read Matt...
Now you are being silly. The President cannot be held responsible for American policy.http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/18/world/finger-pointing-but-few-answers-after-a-syria-solution-fails.html?_r=0
This seems like a pretty solid run-down.http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=61386
Run Mitt Run http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/09/romneys-horror-at-trump-renews-mitt-2016-talk.html
Seems like American students are piercing their faces less than they did 10 or 15 years ago.
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