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Posts by AldenPyle

That's good. Probably we can scoop off the cream out of that group.
I think the resettlement of Iraqi refugees in the US was a useful case. Around 80,000 Iraqis were resettled to America with very little incident or social problems. Its fair to say though that the vetting process of these refugees erred on the side of caution (shamefully so, perhaps, considering we had obligations to many of these people). I would have no problem with admitting Syrian refugees through a similar vetting process. Given the efficiency of our government, that...
I think its possible for intelligent, decent people to square the contradictions between a traditional worldview and the demands of a liberal society. The problem is that many people aren't all that intelligent. It's clear that the thousands of Europeans who have gone to fight for ISIS haven't been able to function in the face of these contradictions. I don't accept that Islam is inherently more contradictory to Western society than other worldviews. But it does seem to be...
Are we really sure this is ISIS? On its face, it does seem more like AQ. Also, AQ doesn't claim credit. People seem to think that ISIS claim of responsibility doesn't seem all that detailed or prepared, like they didn't know it was going to happen either.
Good news: GOP establishment trying to get Mitt back into the race. Nypost Bad news: Mitt is playing coy. Please help us, Mitt. You are our only hope.
Fair enough. If the scientific consensus is that carbon emissions have been driving surface temperatures up a milligrade per decade over the post-war era, consistent with very conservative models of greenhouse gas driven climate change, then I think I know how a debate on the cost-benefit analysis of radical emissions adjustment would play out. Models that deliver utterly catastrophic outcomes seem to require both speculative estimates of possible spillover effects and...
On page 155 of Chap 1 of the Physical Science Basis of the last IPCC AR(5), they list upper and lower bounds of the temperature increase over 1990 for three different model forecasts. For 2015, these were FAR [.33,.91], SAR[.23,47], TAR[.22,.70]. Än observed rise of .3 is well below the middle of the range for even the most conservative forecast.Gosh, the scientific consensus disappeared pretty quick there. I gotta say, if I have to choose between relying on the IPCC...
From Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Chap. 1, p. 131, of the IPCC A4(5), Chttps://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter01_FINAL.pdf {I added the horizontal axis}That doesn't look like the high end of the projections to me. To me that looks like temperature has gone up about .3C over the last 25 odd years. As far as I can tell, that is at the bottom end of the projections. For example,From the IPCC AR(4), "Since IPCC’s first report in...
Because the feedback effects are uncertain and contested. If the multiplier effects are near zero, which seems to be a respectable position, then the impact of increased greenhouse gases on global temperature will be near the bottom of the range of IPCC forecasts. If the climate change is near the bottom of the range of IPCC estimates, then its hard to justify the economic costs of changing greenhouse gas emissions.If anyone wants to understand this position, read Matt...
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